1. Current Market Logic
The market is in a continuous oscillation at a small level. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the early morning met expectations, and the market reaction was muted (no surprises in the four times this year).
War variables escalate: The situation in the Middle East has become the largest uncertainty factor.
Historical patterns fail: In previous geopolitical conflicts, BTC rose as a "safe-haven asset," but this time, due to concerns about global economic recession, it has become a target for selling (linked to fluctuations in oil/stock markets).
2. Technical Signals
Prices are at a critical support zone (current price around 104700), with a favorable long position risk-reward ratio, but sudden news breaks should be watched closely.
3. Operating Plan
Short-term long entry: Enter a light long position at the current price of 104700, targeting the resistance area (106000-107000), with strict stop-loss below 103800.
Preparation for a short position: If there is a rebound to the resistance level and no worsening of the war, short positions can be built in batches.
Time risk control: All positions should be closed before the European market opens to avoid geopolitical black swans during the US market session.
Core Reminder: This is currently a high-risk, high-volatility phase. Positions should be reduced to a normal level of 1/3 to avoid overnight holdings #BTC
