Current Price: ~$104,642 (down ~$170, ~-0.16%)
Intraday Range: $103.8K – $105.5K
ETF Flows: Invesco’s Bitcoin ETF saw zero inflows today — a sign of institutional hesitation

🎯 Key Drivers Behind Today’s Movements

  1. Geopolitical Nervousness
    The Israel–Iran conflict remains front and center, increasing risk aversion. As capital shifts toward bonds and gold, crypto—being risk-on—stalls

  2. Fed-related Uncertainty
    With markets awaiting next week's Fed meeting, Bitcoin hits resistance near $107K and has been consolidating lower—bulls struggling to regain control above short-term EMAs

  3. Technical Setup = Descending Triangle Grind
    Price appears confined under a descending resistance trendline with the 20–50–100 EMAs converging between $105–$106K. Momentum (Chande) remains bearish below zero

  4. ETF Flow Stagnation
    Institutional demand via ETFs paused today, indicating tactical caution or simply a “wait-and-see” posture

📊 What to Watch Next

  • Critical Support: $104.4K – a hub of recent bounce activity.
    A break below this could open the path to $103K, then possibly $100K.

  • Upside Resistance: ~$107K (prior swing high & EMAs) — a barrier bulls must clear to regain momentum.

  • ETF Inflows: A resumption in daily inflows could help lift sentiments.

📝 Summary & Strategy

Bitcoin is in a tight trading range between $104K–$107K, pressured by both geopolitical turmoil and macro/tight technical setup. A decisive move in either direction will likely be triggered after:

  • This week’s Fed policy decision

  • Any major development in the Middle East

🎯 What should traders consider?

  • Aggressive traders: A breach and hold above ~$107K could offer breakout plays targeting $110K+.

  • Conservative/long-term holders: Use any dip near $104K as a staggered accumulation opportunity.

  • Risk-focused traders: Avoid heavy exposure until post-Fed clarity arrives



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