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#美联储FOMC会议 The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, what should crypto investors do?
According to the CME 'FedWatch' tool:
The probability of a 25bp rate cut in May is only 2.7%
The probability of maintaining the interest rate in June is nearly 70%
The market generally expects that substantial rate cuts may not occur until September or even November
What does this mean?
Before high inflation is truly suppressed, the Federal Reserve is not eager to 'ease up,' and the liquidity easing window that the market originally expected will be delayed again.
💡 So the question arises: how should we respond?
① For crypto investors
'The cryptocurrency market is not an island, it also relies on the Federal Reserve's support.'
The first principle of position control: avoid high leverage, control floating profit drawdowns, especially during periods of severe short-term volatility
Pay attention to institutional on-chain behavior: changes in ETF holdings, BTC on-chain liquidity fluctuations, and inflow/outflow trends of exchanges
Focus on the 'true needs sectors': RWA, DePIN, AI, ReputationFi, these will attract more attention from long-term capital
Be cautious with 'no fundamental' speculation: with rate cuts delayed, the liquidity foundation of meme and story coins will deteriorate
✅ Reasonable strategy:
Short-term for fluctuations, mid-term for rotations, long-term stay in the BTC + AI/RWA main sectors
② For overall risk asset allocators (including US stocks, ETFs, gold, etc.)
✅ If you lean towards 'conservative':
Strengthen cash flow positions (money market funds, short-term bonds)
Increase allocations in large-cap stable equities (such as energy, consumer, healthcare)
Gold still has anti-inflation properties but needs to avoid the risk of chasing prices at too high positions
✅ If you lean towards 'growth':
Continue to track the turning point of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy (CPI & PCE are key indicators)
Time your investments in new economy tracks such as AI, cloud computing, and green energy
You can gradually allocate to crypto ETFs or DeFi blue-chip assets, but be cautious about diversifying risks
✳️ Summary: The first half of 2025 is a stage of 'patient layout'
The biggest enemy of the market is not the news, but 'expectations falling short.'
Investment should not just chase trends, but see who can endure 'the calm times.'
In the current situation where rate cuts are uncertain, inflation has not retreated, and volatility is increasing, the truly valuable actions are:
Optimize allocation structure (reduce leverage, increase liquidity)
Identify trends in advance (the real driving logic behind sectors like AI + RWA)