🦅🚩Summary of our live - For anyone who couldn’t follow it in Portuguese:
It became very clear that the FED knows exactly what it’s doing. Powell emphasized that decisions are not made impulsively but through a highly structured process where each committee member has their own analysis, their own view, and their individual vote. From there, they build the scenario that leads to the final decision. He made it clear that these analyses are based on years of studying the market, monitoring data, evaluating risks, and considering countless factors that go far beyond simplistic price predictions.
Powell also highlighted that while the FED is open to ideas and feedback, they remain committed to their own technical analysis, backed by solid data, not by external pressures. This is clearly a response to the growing pressure from both the market and political figures like Donald Trump, who has frequently criticized the Federal Reserve.
In the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), Powell reinforced that projections are individual assessments, not a committee decision, and are subject to uncertainty, which remains “unusually elevated.”
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Our reading:
Powell’s tone was relatively flexible but with a slight negative bias. By making it clear that maintaining higher rates is still necessary and that decisions are based on a deeply technical and responsible process, he’s signaling that the FED will not give in to political pressure or market noise.
As a result, BTC and other risk assets may react cautiously in the short term, with potential for volatility, corrections, or profit-taking. However, since the speech brought no drastic changes, neither overly hawkish nor dovish, the market may, after the initial impact, shift focus back to other factors, such as institutional flows, Bitcoin ETFs, the narrative, and geopolitical risks.
