🚨FED PRESS CONFERENCE – JUNE 2025 SUMMARY
• Rates held at 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a cautious stance amid inflation uncertainty. Powell said policy is “appropriately positioned” and flexible to changes.
• Inflation outlook for 2025 raised to 3.1% (from 2.5%) due to tariffs and trade tensions. This explains why no rate cuts yet, despite softer recent inflation.
• Core PCE inflation expected to ease gradually:
• 2.6% (2025) → 2.4% (2026) → 2.1% (2027)
But Powell warned inflation remains unpredictable.
• Labor market remains strong: 4.2% unemployment, rising real wages. No signs of major layoffs, but the Fed is monitoring risks closely.
• The Fed is leaning more on forward-looking forecasts than just current data, especially regarding inflation risks.
• Powell avoided political questions and reaffirmed focus on inflation and employment.
• AI impact still unclear; too early to judge.
Geopolitical risks (e.g. Israel–Iran) are being monitored but not yet alarming.
Fiscal policy is up to Congress; the Fed will adjust as needed.
• The Fed is reviewing its policy framework and communication tools (including SEP) but won’t make unnecessary changes.
👉 Conclusion: The Fed remains patient and cautious. No near-term rate cuts, but open to adjusting if data shifts — staying focused on price stability and full employment.
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