The expectation for Bitcoin during a conflict in the Middle East can vary significantly depending on the degree of escalation, duration, and global impact of the conflict. However, there are some likely scenarios that the market tends to consider:

1. Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset

In times of geopolitical instability, some investors seek assets considered alternatives to the traditional financial system, such as gold — and, more recently, Bitcoin.

This can increase demand for BTC in the short term, driving the price up, especially if there is fear of sanctions, bank freezes, or devaluation of local currencies.

Practical example: During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Bitcoin rose initially, as it was seen as an alternative means to move capital outside the SWIFT system.

2. Bitcoin as a risk asset

On the other hand, if the market is in risk-averse mode (flight from volatile assets), Bitcoin may fall along with stocks and other cryptocurrencies, as it is still considered by many as a speculative asset.

If the war causes a spike in oil prices, global inflation, or recession risk, there may be a drop in stock markets — and BTC may be impacted along with them.

3. Indirect influence through oil and inflation

The Middle East is a key region for oil. If the conflict raises oil prices, this can generate inflation in the U.S. and Europe, which pressures central banks to maintain high interest rates.

High interest rates generally hurt risk assets like BTC, as investors tend to seek fixed income.

4. Adoption and local use of Bitcoin

In regions directly affected by the war, Bitcoin can be used to escape state controls, withdrawal restrictions, or loss of value of the local currency. This can increase volume and usage, but does not always directly impact the global price.