The dot plot is considered a positive sign because the market has already anticipated a very bad outcome. It is expected that there will be one rate cut this year, but the dot plot suggests two. We will see if the first rate cut this year occurs in September or October.

If there is a desire for a rate cut in July, the data after June must become very poor, so that Powell would change his stance, or they would proactively let the data worsen before preparing for a rate cut in July. However, this possibility is extremely low, so please do not expect an early rate cut.

Powell's rate cut is straightforward; the economy is still very stable, and there is no need to rush into a rate cut. We can continue to wait and see the data while maintaining a cautious approach. However, the door for a rate cut in the second half of the year has already been confirmed to be open, and the next step is to determine in which months the rate cuts will occur, focusing on the non-farm payroll data.