Bitcoin continues to fall, dropping 6,000 points in two days, reaching a low of around 103,300. Currently, it has rebounded from the oversold position to around 105,000. Yesterday, I clearly reminded in my article (Bitcoin's Stunning Flash Crash! Why Such Volatility? Why Are Altcoins Crashing? How Much Longer Will BTC Fall? Where Is the Bottom? (Bottom Fishing Strategy at the End)) that Bitcoin's volume breakout indicates a bearish signal, targeting the 103,700-104,400 range. After the expected drop, I went long when it stabilized around 104,400 and made a profit of 800 points, closing at 105,200.
Bitcoin (BTC)
In the four-hour timeframe, the bullish momentum is insufficient, and the trend is weak. The daily volatility is decreasing, the structure is converging, and the trading volume is declining, indicating that a major market movement is imminent. Within the next 4-24 hours, the leading funds in contracts continue to flow out, with more pronounced outflows in the spot market. Yesterday, ETF institutional funds saw a net inflow of $216 million, barely supporting the market.
Risk Warning:
If negative news or geopolitical conflicts arise (such as a war between Iran and the US), BTC could drop to the 90,000 range. The pullback target price is 100,900, resonating with the critical support at 101,500, which is the best point to go long at low levels.
Operational Advice:
You can participate lightly in rebounds, entering and exiting quickly around 103,100; the decline won't happen overnight. Plan overnight orders to capture trends in the early morning. If BTC rebounds to around 106,600, the risk-reward ratio is high, making it suitable for shorting, but confirmation is needed.
Ethereum (ETH)
The Ethereum (ETH) market is experiencing severe fluctuations, causing great concern. A moment's inattention could lead to significant losses. If short positions taken in the afternoon weren't closed in time, profits have evaporated, while those going long are starting to profit.
Market movements are driven by news, and with the Fed's announcement due in the early morning, volatility is expected to increase. I don’t want to gamble... scalp trading carries high risks, and a small mistake could lead to total losses, so it's best to have stop-loss orders on both sides. Looking at the daily chart, watch for low-buy opportunities at EMA 144/169, with short-term attention on 2,445/2,380 points; there's not much else to say.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 2 AM tonight is virtually a certainty, with a 99.99% probability that rates will remain unchanged, focusing on Powell's speech.
The current international situation is tense, and any slight movement could trigger market volatility; caution is advised. Short-term trading requires strict stop-losses; otherwise, you might wake up to an empty wallet.
Personal Opinion: The news is leaning bearish; rebounds can continue to be shorted.
The market is currently unlikely to reach new highs and is more likely to experience a pullback and consolidation. We may see a surge if Powell signals interest rate cuts, which could drive up altcoins. There is currently a lack of positive news; even if Bitcoin rises, it's largely orchestrated by institutions, with poor liquidity and no one willing to take on the risk. If negative news compounds with the US getting involved in conflicts, it could trigger a black swan event, leading to a plunge. Going long has a maximum stop-loss of 1,800 points, but shorting could lead to a direct drop of 10,000 points if a major crash occurs.
Reviewing $ESTEE
The $SHIB concept IP token $ESTEE launched a few days ago, first washed out before steadily rising, increasing from the second floor to the seventh in just over a day, yielding three times the returns on bottom fishing. On-chain platforms show a market cap of around 700,000, with the community having burned 40%, resulting in an actual market cap of about 400,000. The principal has been recovered; we'll see how the project performs moving forward.
On-chain Hotspot Briefing:
Pump Release:
Projects like Alon, Trencher, Trenches, and Cupsey are hot. Cupsey had a standout opening, but Trenches is sluggish due to 10% positioning by group members. The meme market environment for Solana is extremely poor, at a hellish level; participation should be cautious.
USD1 Trading Competition:
EGL1, Janitor, Liberty, BULLA, Tag, CA, and other targets are all experiencing unilateral declines, and the BSC chain is overall sluggish. Averaging in poses extremely high risks, akin to 'suicide.'
Base Chain ACP Concept:
Projects in the Base ecosystem such as Mamo, Brain, and Swarm have collectively plummeted, forming a unilateral downward trend. Noice and AR have sharply declined, while Arbus has also dropped but is considered an important observation target alongside AXR.
AVAX Resurgence:
AVAX's performance is in sync with the broader market, showing sluggishness. Projects like Fomo and Lambo have breakthrough opportunities but face significant information gaps, making it difficult for retail investors to profit.
Advice: The current market is primarily in a unilateral downward trend; short-term operations require strict stop-losses and caution against chasing highs, with a focus on potential targets like Arbus and AXR.
