Hello, traders! As predicted, Bitcoin is perfectly following Scenario #2 from my previous analysis.
š What Happened?
The instrument showed a fake rally, luring impatient traders into premature long positions, only to liquidate them with a sharp downward move. The primary Point of Interest (POI) remains below us ā this is where the "whale" aims to deliver the price to fill their orders and close the shorts they used for the initial SSL manipulation.
My Trading Scenarios & Entry Plan
1ļøā£ Scenario 1: Mitigation of the Primary POI
My expectation remains the same: a reaction upon the mitigation of the 4h order block, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci level.
Entry Condition: The level must hold on at least the 4H timeframe, confirmed by a bullish reversal and an order flow shift on the Lower Timeframe (LTF).
Zone: $102,745 - $103,868
Invalidation: A clear break and close below the 78.6% Fib level would invalidate this scenario.
2ļøā£ Scenario 2: Deeper Liquidity Grab
If the liquidity at the 4h OB isn't enough for the whale to continue the uptrend, they might trigger a more aggressive decline to grab liquidity from the low at $100,370.
Entry Condition: A swift sweep of this low, followed by a sharp reclaim of the level and the beginning of a bullish order flow on the LTF.
Zone: $100,700 - $102,000
Invalidation: A candle close below the $100,370 liquidity level would invalidate this scenario.
Final Thoughts
Do not open positions just because the price has reached a POI. Wait for a clear reversal reaction and LTF confirmation for more conservative and safer entries. Always use stop-losses to protect your capital; no setup has a 100% win rate, and for every whale, there can always be a bigger one.
To be consistently profitable, you just need to find setups with a win rate greater than 50% ā this is how casinos and professional traders operate.
Happy hunting with the whales ā don't be the plankton. Follow their tracks.