At 2 AM (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with a probability of only 0.1% for a rate cut in June; it is expected that there will be no rate cut in June. At the beginning of the year, many anticipated a rate cut in June, but Trump's tariff policy disrupted those expectations, pushing hopes for a cut to September. Since it is expected that there will be no rate cut in June, market panic should not be too strong, and the likelihood of large-scale sell-offs is relatively low. So there’s no need to worry too much; the only thing to pay attention to is the contract players, watch out for pinning!

In the last 24 hours, a total of 139,891 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $381 million.

The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance - ETHUSDT worth $4.2277 million.

The biggest highlight of tonight's meeting is the 'dot plot', to see how many times the Federal Reserve officials plan to cut interest rates this year. The first rate cut is very likely in September; where will the second cut happen? Will there be a cut? It all depends on the results announced tonight.

The phenomenon of altcoins following Bitcoin's 'pinning' volatility down but not up is essentially a concentrated reflection of the current structural imbalance in the market.

Bitcoin's siphoning effect and the liquidity exhaustion of altcoins.

Funds have significantly concentrated on Bitcoin, with Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) rising to 63%-65%, a new high since 2020. Institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin through ETFs, while the total market capitalization of altcoins has shrunk by 40% compared to the peak in 2024, with liquidity nearly exhausted.

Reason: The uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment (Trump's tariffs, geopolitical tensions) and the tightening of regulations (EU MiCA legislation) have reinforced Bitcoin's 'digital gold' safe-haven property, leading to a surge in demand for capital protection, while retail investors' sell-off of altcoins has further exacerbated the decline.

Bitcoin ETFs act like a 'capital black hole', absorbing market liquidity, with new funds being locked in for the long term, causing most altcoins to lose rotation opportunities.

Therefore, as I previously reminded, the future 'altcoin bull market' will not be like before, where all altcoins could surge; instead, there will be a scenario of 'the strong get stronger, and the weak exit'. The ones that can truly profit are those leading projects with solid underlying technology, complete on-chain infrastructure, and top rankings in their respective fields. Many small coins may only earn meager returns, and some older coins may be out of luck in this market cycle.

Therefore, the key to investing in altcoins this round is to decisively clear out low-quality coins! Don’t expect overall market rises to resurrect projects with no prospects. Focus on allocating funds to those high-potential projects with a real user base, sufficient financial backing, and quality resource endorsements.

From an overall trend perspective, the current movement of Bitcoin is somewhat similar to that in 2021. If you tend to learn from history, the upcoming market may develop in two possible paths:

The first scenario is similar to the trends around September 2021, where Bitcoin may enter a new round of correction, potentially dropping to around $95,000, followed by another upward push, and even breaking $150,000 is not impossible. Afterwards, some altcoins may experience a brief explosive increase, but the market may then enter a new round of bear market.

The second scenario is similar to the trends around November 2021, where Bitcoin directly breaks through historical highs, and some altcoins experience a brief frenzy before the market shifts into a bear market cycle.

The market cannot sustain a bull market, and a bull market cannot allow most people to truly make money; this is the harsh reality we must accept. Don't try to predict the so-called precise top during a bull market; the most important thing during a bull market is to seize the right timing for phased profit-taking, rather than always thinking about perfectly selling at the top.

Finally

In today's crypto space, too many people hold a handful of coins but find themselves in a dilemma: they can only passively wait when there's no market, and when the market comes, they don't know how to adjust their positions and miss good opportunities.