From an economic data perspective:
The US economy is weak, with 139,000 non-farm jobs added in May (below the expected 177,000), exceeding 4.2%, initial claims for unemployment benefits expected at 250,000 (previously), and continuing claims at 1.956 million (a three-and-a-half-year high). These data reinforce market expectations for the economy.
Rate Cut Expectations: According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 60%. Powell's speech on June 19 may exacerbate inflation and economic panic, with dovish signals possibly boosting risk assets.
Impact: If Powell's speech leans dovish (enhanced rate cut expectations), BTC may receive a temporary boost; if hawkish (downplaying rate cuts), the dollar strengthens, and BTC faces pressure. However, in the context of negative implications from conflict, the positive impact of rate cuts is limited.
2. Impact of the Iran and Israel Conflict
Conflict Situation: Since June 13, the conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, with Trump demanding Iran's 'unconditional surrender' and Iran becoming 'the start of the battle.' The market is concerned about the risks of nuclear program breakthroughs or nuclear attacks.
The escalation of conflict will lead to global market panic, with funds flowing into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds, putting BTC under selling pressure.
Nuclear attack is a significant negative: If Iran triggers a nuclear attack, global financial markets will plunge into extreme turmoil, with risk assets crashing. Referring to the case of BTC dropping by 50% in the early days of the 2020 pandemic, a nuclear attack could cause BTC to drop by 20%-30% in the short term.
Market Sentiment: The escalation of conflict (especially nuclear attacks) will trigger a flight to safety, causing BTC and the stock market to decline in sync, with institutions possibly reducing their BTC holdings to avoid risk.
3. Bitcoin Market Dynamics
Current Price: 104, recent fluctuation range 95,000 - 105,000,
On-chain data: Net inflow to exchanges decreased by 15%, whale accumulation increased by 20%, indicating a strong hold-and-wait sentiment.
Institutional Holdings: Strategies recently increased holdings by 1,045 BTC, total holdings at 582,000, with floating profits exceeding 20 billion, but the escalation of conflict may prompt institutions to reduce their positions to hedge against risk.
Funding Rate: Binance perpetual contract rate 0.01%-0.03%, long and short forces balanced, no extreme sentiment observed yet.
4. Short-term Trend Prediction
1: Escalation of Conflict (including nuclear attacks)
If the conflict with Iran intensifies, especially if a nuclear attack occurs, global market panic selling will ensue, and BTC risk assets will plummet, with an expected drop of 20%-30%, possibly testing prices down to 95,000 or even higher.
2: Powell's Speech
Dovish (clear rate cut signals): The dollar weakens, short-term benefiting BTC, but conflict dampens bullish momentum, limiting the uplifting effect.
Hawkish (downplaying rate cuts): The dollar strengthens, conflict is negative, enhancing BTC's decline.
Therefore, the BTC trend over the next three days leans bearish, primarily driven by the escalation of the Iran conflict (especially the risk of nuclear attacks). Expected price range is 95,000 - 100,000.
Trading Recommendations
Direction: Short BTC.
Entry Point: Current price, or rebound to 107,000
Main Target: 100,000.
Extended Target: 95,000.
Stop Loss Point: 109,000, to guard against easing of conflict or Powell's overly dovish tone.
Risk Control:
Iran Situation: If the conflict eases (e.g., Washington agreement reached), close positions immediately.
Powell's Speech: If overly dovish signals are released (such as early rate cuts), adjust positions promptly.
