Federal Reserve Poised to Hold Rates Steady: What to Expect and When Cuts Might Begin.

Get ready for a big economic announcement! The Federal Reserve is all set to reveal its latest interest rate decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at 2:00 AM UTC+8 on Thursday. This will be followed by a crucial press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 AM.

The overwhelming consensus? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to keep interest rates right where they are, at 4.25%-4.5%. A recent Reuters survey of 105 economists shows a near-unanimous agreement, with 103 predicting no change and only two forecasting a modest 25-basis-point rate cut.

When Will the Rate Cuts Start?

While a rate hold is anticipated for now, eyes are already turning to the future. A significant portion of economists surveyed by Reuters—59 out of 105—believe the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in the next quarter, with September being a strong possibility.

Furthermore, 60% of economists are predicting two rate cuts this year. This aligns perfectly with the median forecast from the Fed's March "dot plot" and is consistent with current monetary market pricing, which anticipates a total of 46 basis points of easing by year-end.

What do you think will happen? Share your predictions in the comments below!