Mad Cow or Black Swan? The cryptocurrency market enters the "last half month" of the cycle's final chapter
If the cyclical patterns in the cryptocurrency market still hold, then the next half month is the last window period for this bull market.
Currently, Bitcoin's market share has risen to 63.9%, which is a very critical high position. Based on past bull market experiences, as long as the market share breaks through 64%, it usually enters the "Altcoin Season" phase, where Bitcoin's market share peaks, funds spread to altcoins, bubbles accelerate, and ultimately lead to a climax in selling.
From a time cycle perspective, July, August, September, and October of this year are the last stages of bubble-blowing for altcoins. Because once we enter November and December, the bull market structure is likely to collapse, and the operators simply won't have enough time to build, pump, wash, and sell.
More critically, from the implied volatility (IV) of BTC, it has currently dropped to a low point in September 2023. This low volatility state often signifies that a direction is about to be determined, representing a calm before a significant market movement. It could either be a black swan breaking the cycle and leading to a deep bear market; or a mad bull fully igniting, completing the final explosion of this cycle.
My judgment: The cycle is likely still valid
I personally lean towards: the cycle still exists. This is not only based on experiential judgment but also a belief in the "market structure".
However, if a black swan appears next, and the market weakens, damaging the structure, I will decisively reduce my position and accept losses, no longer blindly believing that a bull market will definitely come. Because:
What is most valuable in the cryptocurrency market is precisely the "cyclicality" itself.
Without cycles, there is no speculative cost-effectiveness. If the cycle fails, I would rather exit and invest in stocks, where at least the logic still holds.
The next half month is a life-and-death verification of the cyclical laws in the cryptocurrency market.
Either the mad bull starts, and altcoins soar;
Or the black swan arrives, and the cycle completely collapses.
Like + Follow Wen Ge! Victory or defeat lies in this last half month
