This raging bull of an ETF is charging in, but the coin price seems like a monkey welded to the floor, unable to bounce? It's not that the bull is weak; it's that someone is secretly standing on its back cashing out wildly!
Da Sheng believes:
Brothers, recently this market has left me feeling both frustrated and angry! Just look at the data; those Bitcoin ETFs in the US are pouring in billions of dollars (real money!) every day, like a faucet turned on full blast. By common sense, with so much money flowing in, shouldn’t Bitcoin be racing towards historical highs? But what’s the reality? The price is just hovering around 105,000, like it’s constipated, trying several times but then falling flat again! It's driving me to bang my table! Who the hell is messing with this?
In my view, the truth is just two words: selling pressure! Massive, invisible selling pressure!
Let me give you an example: Imagine the ETF as a super big buyer, coming to the market (exchange) on time every day, waving cash and shouting: "Bitcoin, I’ll buy as much as you have!" At this momentum, you’d expect the prices (coin prices) to soar, right?
BUT! On the side, there’s a bunch of old foxes (like the early low-price whales, mining big players, and professional hedge funds), who see this situation and are overjoyed: "Wow, the buyer has arrived! And so aggressive! If we don’t sell now, when will we?" So, they quietly, in batches, continuously throw their "old goods" (low-price chips) to this "wealthy buyer."
So what’s the result? The ETF, this "big eater", is having a feast, but it can't handle the overwhelming amount of "old goods" that are surging from the shadows! The more the ETF consumes, the more these people spit out, even more! It's like stepping hard on the gas (ETF buying) while simultaneously slamming the brakes (large players selling); the car can’t run fast at all! Naturally, the price is being firmly suppressed. That’s why money is pouring in, yet the coin price is playing dead!
For specific buying and selling points and positions, follow the main page of Da Sheng, in the profile.
What effect does this have on our market? As an old player, I'll speak frankly:
This is really annoying in the short term, and the risks are huge! Right now, this market is hanging by a thread with the ETF. If one day this "wealthy buyer" runs into trouble (like inflows slowing or even reversing), or if something unexpected happens (like a crash in the US stock market or harsh regulatory comments), those "sellers" will definitely sell even more furiously if they sense a change in momentum! By then, the coin price could do a "high dive", and those who chased the highs might lose everything. At this position, it looks lively, but in reality, we're dancing on thin ice!
It explains that there are too many "old hands" in the market, with complicated thoughts! Do you think everyone believes in HODL (holding long-term)? Think again! Right now, institutions, large players, and old scalpers are rampant, each as cunning as a monkey. ETF benefits? In their eyes, it's an excellent opportunity for cashing out, hedging, and trading! The market has become as deep as the US stock market, and simply trading based on news can easily turn you into fodder.
Looking at it long-term, it might... perhaps be a good thing? (Cautiously optimistic) From a different perspective, these "old foxes" have sold their goods to the "new money" in ETFs (like pension funds and wealthy clients), equivalent to swapping out the uncertain "old chips" for potentially steadier "new chips". If this "sponge" of an ETF can continue to absorb (with funds flowing in continuously), eventually it will have absorbed most of the hidden "old goods", making the foundation more stable. If it really takes off later, there may be more room for growth? (Of course, this is the ideal scenario, provided that the ETF can keep going!)
For specific buying and selling points and positions, follow the main page of Da Sheng, in the profile.
Da Sheng's perspective:
Brothers, I’m both excited and anxious right now! Excited because this ETF thing has indeed brought a massive influx of traditional world funds, solidifying Bitcoin's status as a "regular army", with immense long-term potential! But anxious because the short-term game of "visible bullish and hidden bearish" is too dangerous! The large players are taking advantage of the ETF’s tailwind to unload, keeping the price firmly suppressed. It feels like a gold mine is right in front of me, but a pack of hungry wolves is lurking at the entrance! Should I chase the highs? I dare not! I’m afraid of being the last one left holding the bag! But should I completely go to cash? What if the ETF money really absorbs the selling pressure, or suddenly there’s a rate cut or some other good news, and the market surges up? Missing out would be tough too! Quite the dilemma!
So, everyone! This market right now is a "super psychological battle"! On one side, there’s the torrent of real funds from ETFs, and on the other, the hidden currents of large whales selling pressure. The key question arises:
How long and how much can this "super sponge" ETF absorb? Can it withstand the "flooding" from the shadows?
How much inventory do those large players who are "taking advantage of the situation to short" still have left to unload? When will they stop?
Most importantly, for us retail investors, should we follow the "sponge" and believe in it, or should we be wary of the "hidden currents" that might run away at any moment? Or... should we just grab a little stool, eat some seeds, and wait for them to determine the outcome?
Da Sheng is keeping an eye on the market! Let’s liven up the comments section; share your views! Are you choosing to "follow the bull" or "be wary of wolves"?