#FOMCMeeting 🚀Analysis🚀

In focus today

The main event will be in the US with the FOMC meeting this evening. We expect no changes to the policy rate in line with consensus and market pricing💥. FOMC participants will likely adjust their 2025 GDP forecasts lower due to the trade war, while other forecasts will see more modest adjustments. We expect the Fed to resume rate cuts from September and cut twice in 2025 followed by three more cuts in 2026 - slightly faster than what the March 'dots' implied. Read more from our Fed preview: Still on the sidelines, 13 June.

Fears of a wider conflict are growing in Middle East as it is starting to look increasingly likely that the US will get involved in the ongoing fighting between Israel in Iran. Apparently, Trump's inner circle, similarly as the Republican Party, is divided by the issue of whether to intervene or not. The US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, who is known for his interventionist policy approach has said Iran was not close to having a nuclear weapon, but Trump has openly challenged her.

In the euro area, the final HICP data for May is released, which is expected to confirm the flash release. 💥As services inflation drove the decline in May it will be interesting to see the measures of underlying inflation like 'LIMI' and 'super core' since the Lagarde has put more emphasis on these still elevated measures at the June meeting amid headline inflation undershooting the 2% target and staff projecting 1.6% inflation next year.💥

The Riksbank's rate decision is also due this morning at 09:30 CET. While consensus expectation is on a 25bp cut to 2.00%, we maintain our call for an unchanged policy rate and instead expect a cut later this summer in August. Historically the guidance from the Riksbank has been clearer ahead of policy rate cuts, although overall a cut in June or August makes little difference to the overall economy.

Economic and market news💥

What happened overnight

In Japan, May exports came in at -1.7% y/y (cons: -3.8% y/y)💤#GENIUSActPass $BTC