Tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting will be held. The real focus this week will not be an announcement of an interest rate cut, but rather the dot plot.

If the forecast for two rate cuts this year is maintained, that would be bullish. If it's less than two cuts or no cuts are expected, that would be a major bearish signal.

There is also a neutral outcome where the dot plot predicts one rate cut this year, but subsequently, Powell's speech conveys a dovish signal to the market.

As for Powell's speech, I estimate it will be similar to before, emphasizing attention to inflation and unemployment rates, and being ready to act as necessary. Whether it is dovish or hawkish will be left for the market to interpret, with a vague attitude.

Currently, the CME's interest rate bets are based on the expectation of two rate cuts within the year. If the expectation is for two cuts, then there will be a brief momentum for U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin bulls.

Referencing the inflation, employment, and consumption data from April and May, especially the unemployment rate in May reaching 4.244%, which is not far from the 4.3% red line,

I expect two rate cuts, in September and December, with the magnitude of the cuts remaining the same as my previous view, 75-100 basis points. However, if the economy weakens more than expected, there is also a significant probability that the cut could be brought forward to October.