In the past two days, the market focus has been on geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's interest rate meeting. Investors are betting on the escalation of conflicts and Thursday's dot plot. Nick believes that if there are no tariff impacts, the Fed may cut rates in June, suggesting Powell may release dovish signals. However, with current inflation falling, policy uncertainty is high, and the Fed may be 'dovish in words but hawkish in action.'
Today's hot project opportunities
1. The U.S. Senate passed the (GENIUS Act): The stablecoin bill is of great significance to the crypto industry, as the industry can only thrive if stablecoins are legally on-chain. The next step is for the president to sign it into effect.
2. Recent overall on-chain activity has been relatively calm, but the AVAX chain has been active, with short-term trends such as lambo and fomo performing strongly. It is advisable to focus on the AVAX ecosystem.
3. The CEX market fell with the overall market, and altcoins performed poorly, while the DeFi sector remained relatively resilient. Leading projects are expected to rebound significantly after the market stabilizes.
4. JPMorgan will pilot the issuance of deposit tokens on the Coinbase-related blockchain and discuss the process of on-chain capital markets with the SEC. Traditional financial institutions are accelerating their entry, which is positive for industry development.
BTC
BTC has recently experienced significant price fluctuations and has now fallen back to levels from 13 days ago. 103,500 has slight support, with the key support level at 100,800. If the 4-hour line does not drop below 100,800, the market will maintain a wide range of fluctuations around 10,000 dollars.
Operational advice: Short at high points, long at low points. Recently, it has been easier to profit from short positions, as negative news or panic can lead to rapid declines, while increases require strong positive news and substantial funds to absorb selling pressure.
Current Trend: The 4-hour chart shows signs of rebound, but the strength is limited. 106,100 is the short-term resistance level; a short position can be attempted. Be aware of the impact of the Fed's news in the early morning.
ETH
ETH taking profit at 2500 points, still observing a consolidation market. Small positions can be taken to go long on ETH nearby, observing today's rebound performance. The short positions above are relatively heavy, with the maximum liquidation price at 2570, expected to possibly rise to around 2550.
However, the current bullish strength is weak, and the willingness to buy is low. The rebound in the early morning is merely an oversold rebound; it is advised to refrain from trading today. Experience with long positions is poor, only gambling on today's rebound, with a subjective bias still leaning towards short positions.
Key point, ETH is in a consolidation market, with small positions going long around 2500, focusing on rebounds to 2550. There is significant short pressure, with a maximum liquidation price of 2570. Bulls are weak; it is advisable to operate cautiously, with a bearish outlook as the main strategy.
Altcoin
BCH has started to perform! I've been following it closely during this short time, and mentioned it in yesterday's article. Later it surged directly to 483, securing a profit. If you're worried it's a dead cat bounce and don't know where the top is, contact me for real-time strategies.
SPX has shown strong momentum recently but is weakening, with bearish signals appearing on the daily chart (umbrella-shaped candlestick, evening star, MACD death cross). The 4-hour chart may form an M-top with box consolidation. In the short term, it can go lightly long with Bitcoin's rebound, with a stop loss at 1.2, and be wary of resistance at previous highs and the downside risk from losing support at 106,500 dollars for Bitcoin.
On-chain
$RICO
Market Cap: 1.4 million dollars
Narrative: The porcupine is a symbol of the American libertarian party, similar to the squirrel political meme, resonating with the overseas community's high enthusiasm for the anti-fraud and anti-corruption bill. The odds are favorable, making it worth a bet, but remember not to get overly excited.
Development: Due to Musk's @ and interactions, the market cap quickly rose and then fell. Attention should be paid to subsequent interactions and development opportunities.
Risk: Community consensus is weak, but recent enthusiasm is acceptable. If someone organizes a CTO, there may be breakthrough opportunities.
$Trenches
Backed by Pumpfun's largest investor, the live broadcast track is aligned with Pumpfun's clear direction, aiming to create a 'Bankless' for Solana. Accumulation around 1.5M is evident, with a recent start of the second wave of the market. However, control of shares is slightly loose, with familiar holders exceeding 10%. A significant rise requires strong cooperation from whales and market liquidity support, worth close attention.
