#FOMCMeeting Here’s the latest on the #FOMCMeeting (June 17–18, 2025):

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🏦 What happened

• The Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, marking a fourth consecutive pause—consistent with market expectations  .

• The decision reflects a “wait-and-see” stance amidst ongoing geopolitical risks, including Middle East tensions affecting oil and inflation, and uncertainty from U.S. tariffs and fiscal policy .

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📊 What to watch

1. Dot‑plot and economic projections

Expect fewer rate cuts projected this year. Earlier forecasts saw two; now it appears the median shows just one cut, perhaps in Q3 or later .

2. Press Conference with Chair Powell

Watch closely for his commentary on how tariffs, trade and oil may shape forward guidance. Powell is likely to reiterate the high threshold required before lowering rates  .

3. Economic data updates

Recent indicators: May retail sales down ~0.9%, industrial activity slowing, but labor market remains stable (unemployment ~4.2%, inflation ~2.3–2.4%) .

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🔍 Market expectations

• No rate change is nearly certain—CME FedWatch shows ~99.9% probability .

• Market still leans toward a rate cut in September, with ~60% odds, though some see cuts being delayed to Q4 or even 2026 .

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📝 Summary

• Rate held at 4.25–4.50%.

• Fed signaled caution, citing geopolitical, trade, and fiscal uncertainties.

• Dot‑plot to downgrade expected rate cuts, likely projecting just one in 2025.

• Investors and analysts will scrutinize Powell’s remarks and upcoming data to forecast the timing of the next rate move.

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Let me know if you’d like a breakdown of the dot-plot, historical context, or details from Powell’s press conference once it’s out!