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Weekly Review
From June 9 to June 16 this week, Ice Sugar Orange reached a high near $110,530 and a low close to $102,664, with a fluctuation of about 7.12%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 103,876, which will have certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60,000-68,000 approximately 1.2 million pieces;
76,000-89,000 approximately 1.24 million pieces;
90,000-100,000 approximately 1.4 million pieces;
In the short term, the probability of not breaking 95,000~100,000 is 80%;
Important news aspect
Economic News Aspect
Market Opening Performance:
On Monday, US stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index up 1.6% and the S&P 500 index up 1.06%.
Gold fell by 1%, Brent crude oil fell by 2%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.17%.
Federal Reserve (FOMC) Dynamics and Rate Cut Expectations:
This Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary.
Due to the recently released CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data being weaker than expected, the market has anticipated a probability of a rate cut in September.
The market's focus is whether the Federal Reserve will release clear signals regarding future rate cut timings.
Citibank analysts point out that the current market may underestimate the likelihood of rate cuts.
Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may emphasize the uncertainty surrounding economic growth and inflation prospects, indicating a tone of not rushing to cut rates but being prepared to respond when the economy requires it.
The market generally expects Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to maintain a neutral stance.
Geopolitical and Market Impact:
Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, one of the market's focal points is the conflict between Israel and Iran.
The ongoing tensions in the Middle East and concerns over geopolitical conflicts are putting pressure on risk assets.
Institutional Forecast:
Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast, expecting gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.
Crypto Ecosystem News Aspect
Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulatory Progress:
Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan stated that with the development of the digital asset market, the demand for stablecoins will increase.
(The Stablecoin Regulation) has been passed by the Legislative Council and will take effect on August 1.
After the regulation takes effect, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will process license applications received as soon as possible, aiming to attract global institutions to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong based on actual application scenarios to enhance market liquidity and competitiveness.
Last year, the total trading volume of digital assets and related products by local banks in Hong Kong reached HKD 17.2 billion, with the total amount of digital assets held in custody by banks reaching HKD 5.1 billion by the end of the year.
Cryptocurrency Market Performance and Analysis:
Circle (USDC issuer) rose 20% during the day, with a market value rising to $35 billion.
BTC rose 2.2%, ETH rose 3.6%.
QCP Analysis: Despite the tense situation in the Middle East, BTC has not experienced a panic drop, indicating improved market resilience, with institutional continuous accumulation becoming a key support.
10x Research Analysis: Against the backdrop of rising oil prices, strong US Treasury yields, data divergence, and the Federal Reserve's caution, BTC's macro fundamentals are quietly strengthening. The longer the consolidation time, the greater the possibility of a future breakthrough.
Seasonal factors in summer may lead BTC to continue consolidating in the short term, but the macro signals in the mid to long term have shifted, laying the foundation for potential gains within the year.
BTC cycle performance: This cycle's performance is similar to the past, with a rise of 1076% from 2015-2018, a rise of 1007% from 2018-2022, and a rise of 656% from 2022 to now.
ETF Fund Flows:
Last week, the total inflow of the US BTC spot ETF was $1.37 billion, of which BlackRock's IBIT saw an inflow of $1.1159 billion.
Last week, the inflow of the US ETH spot ETF was $528.2 million.
The spot BTC ETF has recorded net inflows for seven consecutive weeks.
CoinShares data: Digital assets have achieved net inflows for nine consecutive weeks, with $1.9 billion inflows last week, totaling $12.9 billion in this round of consecutive inflows, and the total inflow since the beginning of the year reaching a new high of $13.2 billion.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that BlackRock's BTC spot ETF holdings have surpassed $70 billion, becoming the fastest ETF to reach this milestone in just 341 days.
Corporate holdings and on-chain data:
US-listed company SharpLink Gaming invested $463 million to increase its holdings of 176,271 ETH, becoming the listed company with the most ETH holdings.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 1,112 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 10,000 BTC.
Santiment Data: Currently, there are 6,392 addresses holding between 1,000 to 100,000 ETH, which have collectively increased their holdings by 1.49 million ETH over the past 30 days, an increase of 3.72%.
Market Predictions and Future Catalysts:
Cointelegraph reports: Market consensus is not bearish, the bull market is not over, and the market believes that BTC is preparing to enter a new phase of price discovery, expecting prices to reach $170,000, with $113,000 being the only obstacle.
VanEck's digital asset head Matthew Sigel stated that the claims of low market cap listed companies establishing large-scale crypto reserves may be scams, likely just to boost their stock prices.
Potential catalysts: The possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at the end of summer and the US (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) may become opportunities to stimulate a market reversal.
US Regulatory Dynamics:
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced four senior personnel appointments, including two members with digital asset experience, interpreted as a signal of SEC head Paul Atkins being more friendly towards the crypto industry.
Stablecoin Market Data:
The total market value of stablecoins has increased by 0.63% in the past 7 days, reaching $251.542 billion.
Long-Term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Mid-Term Exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-Term Observation: Used to analyze the current market conditions; as well as the likelihood of certain events occurring under certain premises.
Long-Term Insights
Non-liquid long-term whales
Total Spot Selling Pressure
ETF Reserve Status
Long-Term Investors Holding for Over Six Months
Large Net Transfers from Exchanges
Short-Term Speculator Cost Line
Part One: Core On-Chain Data Analysis
(Below is the non-liquid long-term whale)
The most far-sighted and financially powerful participants in these markets are in a sustained and steep accumulation cycle. This is not a short-term behavior, but a long-term, strategic asset allocation. It indicates that the most influential capital is systematically increasing its core holdings during the current phase.
(Below is the total selling pressure of spot transactions)
The overall willingness to sell in the current market is at a recent low.
This means that regardless of how prices fluctuate, the holder group—whether in profit or loss—has exhibited a considerable 'reluctance to sell' mentality. The urgency to sell is weak, providing a solid underlying environment for the market.
(Below is the reserve status of ETFs)
ETF fund flows have transitioned from early 'explosive' inflows to a more mature and stable 'configured' net inflow stage.
Although the daily inflow amounts have decreased, the key point is that the direction of fund flows has not reversed, still maintaining overall net inflows or balance.
This represents a continuous background buying power from the mainstream financial world.
(Below are long-term investors holding for over half a year)
This is the most macro and structural indicator.
More than 53.5% of the supply has been locked by long-term holders, and this number is still rising rapidly.
This fundamentally changes the market's supply structure, with a large number of tokens exiting the short-term circulation market and entering a 'quasi-inventory' state, causing the effective supply available for trading to continue to decrease.
(Below is the large net transfer of exchanges)
Recent data shows that large transfers are mainly net outflows.
This is a clear signal indicating that large investors, after purchasing, tend to withdraw assets from exchanges into private wallets.
The motivation for this behavior is long-term storage rather than short-term trading, directly leading to a decrease in the available spot inventory on exchanges.
(Below is the cost line of short-term speculators)
The cost line at $98,245 is the psychological profit-loss boundary for recently active funds in the market. It serves as the 'Maginot Line' of short-term market sentiment; if prices operate above it, the market is relatively safe; if breached, it may trigger stop-loss actions from short-term traders.
Part Two: In-Depth Integrated Analysis
The surface of the market is a confrontation between macro uncertainty and strong micro data.
Traders are closely watching the Federal Reserve's movements, as if the fate of the market hangs by a thread.
The narrow fluctuations in price have intensified this 'tension before the storm'.
However, if you take a step back, you will find a profound contradiction:
If the macro chill is so intense, why do all of the market's internal 'physiological indicators' appear so healthy and strong?
Long-term holders are increasing, whales are accumulating, and selling pressure is decreasing.
This indicates that the market's intrinsic organism is undergoing profound changes, giving it stronger resistance to external 'weather'.
The real story may not be about the weather, but about the organism itself.
To understand this intrinsic change, we can borrow the metaphor of 'geological plates' and integrate all data into it.
The geological composition of the cryptocurrency market is undergoing fundamental changes.
The core driving force of this 'geological movement' comes from the continuous increase of 'long-term investors', who are the chief engineers.
More than half of the territory has changed from soft, erosion-prone 'quick sand' into hard 'bedrock'.
Can clearly see the details of this project:
"Non-liquid long-term whales" and "ETFs" are the two main construction teams. The former acts like inherent structural forces within the plate, squeezing and solidifying the land from within; the latter is like an external land reclamation project, continuously bringing new and stable materials to this continent.
"Large net outflows from exchanges" serve as construction logs, recording the process by which 'bedrock' materials (tokens) are extracted from the flowing 'market ocean' and firmly fixed onto the continental plate.
The result of this geological movement is a significant increase in the stability of the continent. The reduction in 'total spot selling pressure' is akin to a meteorological station report, showing that even if a storm (macro negative) occurs, it is difficult to raise clouds of dust as before, because most of the sand has turned into rock.
And on this increasingly solid continental bedrock, there is a thin layer of flowing surface soil covering it. The 'average altitude' of this surface soil is the cost line of 'short-term speculators': $98,245.
The macro 'tide'—that is, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy—mainly acts on this layer of surface soil, washing out daily price fluctuations.
Thus, the overall picture can be seen clearly.
The surface tension of the market is a normal phenomenon produced when macro tides wash over an increasingly solid and expanding continent.
People feel nervous because they overly focus on the rise and fall of the tides, while neglecting the deeper and more lasting uplift of the continent beneath their feet.
This is not a fragile tug of war, but an interaction between cyclical natural phenomena (macro cycles) and structural geological evolution (ownership transfer).
The market's response pattern has thus changed:
It has stronger resistance to negative tides (macro drawbacks) because most of the land has become bedrock;
However, positive tides (macro benefits) may lead to higher and more rapid waves due to the narrowing of the channels (liquidity).
Part Three: Outlook
Short-Term Outlook:
In the short term, the focus remains on the 'tide'.
The Federal Reserve's decisions are the biggest variable that will directly determine the height of the tide, thereby triggering price fluctuations.
The 'coastline' at $98,245 will be a key observation point, with the market repeatedly testing this level.
Any macro headwinds could temporarily push prices below this line, but this should be seen as an opportunity to observe the strength of 'bedrock' support.
Mid to Long-Term Outlook:
The core of the mid to long-term is the 'geological movement' itself.
We need to continuously measure the rate of bedrock thickening—that is, the proportion of long-term investors, the sustainability of ETF inflows, and the dynamics of whale accumulation.
As long as this movement continues, the continental map is expanding, and the market's value foundation is deepening.
When the next macro tailwind 'tide' comes, it will lift a value entity that is far larger and more stable than in the past.
Mid-Term Exploration
Liquidity Supply Volume
Whale Purchasing Power Comprehensive Score
BTC Exchange Trend Net Position
Incremental Model
Global Purchasing Power
On-Chain Total Chip Distribution Structure
(Below is the liquidity supply)
Currently, the supply of new liquidity in the market has declined, possibly leaning towards a structural game of inventory fluctuations.
If this state persists, the market may continue to glide under the current structure, and the overall direction still requires time to wait.
Looking at it from another angle, market participants may also be negotiating and deliberating.
(Below is the comprehensive score of whales)
Whales still retain abundant liquidity supply, and large participants in the market are still actively participating in negotiations.
Due to the decline in new liquidity supply, the whales in the market are leaning towards an inventory state.
Inventory whales are also the main body maintaining the high-level volatility of BTC.
(Below is the BTC exchange trend net position)
BTC is still engaged in accumulation activities on exchanges.
At the current stage, it remains in a state of weak accumulation, with a small amount of BTC flowing out of exchanges.
(Below is the Incremental Model)
The supply of short-term participants continues to decline, and the market has been in a state of inventory growth since it started rising in April 2025.
As mentioned in the previous weekly report, due to the continuous buying power in the market, along with the increase in short position liquidations, the market has reached a high level.
If the incremental state continues as it is now, the likelihood of a major market explosion in the near term will continue to decline.
The market still needs time to negotiate, and everyone may be waiting for a turning point.
(Below is the global purchasing power)
Global purchasing power is currently declining, and under the gradually contracting purchasing power, the market is slowly returning to rationality and calm.
(Below is the total on-chain chip distribution structure)
Looking from the perspective of chip transaction structures, the current fluctuation structure's support level is around 102,000.
At the same time, since the amount of chips traded around 110,500 is relatively small, the lack of sustained incremental supply may lead to
The energy of price rises will weaken as it crosses the 110,500 price level.
Short-Term Observation
Derivative Risk Coefficient
Option Intent Transaction Ratio
Derivative Transaction Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and Loss Transfer Volume
New Addresses and Active Addresses
Ice Sugar Orange Exchange Net Position
Auntie Exchange Net Position
High Weight Selling Pressure
Global Purchasing Power Status
Stablecoin Exchange Net Position
Derivative Rating: The risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating high derivative risk.
(Below is the derivative risk coefficient)
The derivative risk coefficient has again entered the red zone, indicating that the market is more likely to maintain volatility this week based solely on derivatives, even if there is a squeeze, it will be significantly smaller.
(Below is the option intent transaction ratio)
The proportion and trading volume of put options have increased, currently at a high level.
(Below is the volume of derivative transactions)
The volume of derivative transactions is at a low level.
(Below is the implied volatility of options)
The implied volatility of options has only fluctuated slightly in the short term.
Emotion State Rating: Neutral
(Below is the profit and loss transfer volume)
Consistent with last week, the overall market sentiment is still in a relatively neutral and cautious state.
(Below is the new addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a medium-low level.
Spot and Selling Pressure Structure Rating: BTC is in a state of continuous large outflows, with ETH having a small outflow.
(Below is the net position of Ice Sugar Orange Exchange)
Currently, BTC is continuing to flow out in large amounts.
(Below is the net position of the E-TAI exchange)
As the price of ETH rebounds, there has been a slight inflow of net positions for ETH on exchanges. It has currently been digested and has turned into a slight outflow.
(Below is the high weight selling pressure)
Currently, there is no high-weight selling pressure.
Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has slightly decreased, while stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
(Below is the global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power has slightly decreased but remains in positive territory.
(Below is the USDT exchange net position)
Stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
Weekly Summary:
News Summary:
For the current market, the most direct observation is that it is in a state of holding its breath and waiting.
Everyone's attention is focused on the Federal Reserve this Thursday morning, waiting for a signal regarding future interest rate directions.
The short-term fluctuations of gold, oil, stocks, and even crypto assets seem to be early bets or risk hedges against this signal.
This is a simple, clear fact, and also the starting point of the discussion.
However, an important question arises.
The decisive factor in the market is merely macro monetary policy, so why has there not been a catastrophic drop in digital assets represented by Bitcoin under the relatively clear expectations of tightening and the geopolitical tensions over the past period?
The data we see instead shows that it exhibits resilience that is completely different from previous cycles.
This indicates that the most direct answer may not be complete.
There must be some force counteracting the macro pressures.
This means that attention needs to be shifted away from the surface to explore the changes occurring in the market's internal structure.
To understand this new force, we can introduce a metaphor: imagine the entire digital asset market as a gigantic reservoir, with its water level being the price of the assets.
In the past, the water source of this reservoir primarily relied on natural rainfall—funding from retail investors and market sentiment.
When the weather is good (market sentiment is optimistic, macro is loose), abundant rainfall leads to rising water levels;
When the weather is bad (market panic, macro tightening), rainfall decreases or even drought occurs, leading to a drop in water levels. Therefore, the reservoir's water level is extremely sensitive to 'weather'.
And now, the situation has fundamentally changed.
Next to the reservoir, a huge, solid, and continuously flowing canal has been newly built.
This canal represents the spot ETF channel led by institutions such as BlackRock.
It is not affected by short-term weather changes, and is continuously and steadily injecting fresh water into the reservoir according to the established engineering design.
The mentions of 'seven consecutive weeks of net inflows' and 'the total inflow since the beginning of the year has reached a new high' in the news are direct evidence that this canal is operating efficiently.
At the same time, listed companies converting part of their balance sheets to Bitcoin, or the continuous accumulation of large on-chain holders, can be seen as adding several deep wells to the canal, continuously replenishing water.
Now, let's take a look at the water level of the reservoir.
External 'weather' (Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, geopolitical conflicts) remains important, as it determines the 'evaporation' of the reservoir.
A hawkish signal, like a dry hot wind, will accelerate evaporation and put downward pressure on water levels.
A dovish signal acts like a timely rain, helping water levels rise faster.
However, the decisive factor has changed.
As long as the net injection from the 'canal' is greater than the 'evaporation' caused by the deterioration of the 'weather' in the long term, the long-term trend of the water level in this reservoir is bound to rise.
This is where market resilience comes from:
A continuous, structural, non-emotional buying force (canal) is counteracting and absorbing a volatile, cyclical, emotional macro pressure (weather).
So, now we can return to the initial observation.
People are closely watching the Federal Reserve, just as farmers care about weather forecasts, which is understandable because it directly affects short-term yields.
But what truly changes the hydrological ecology of the entire area is not a single rainstorm, but that canal, which has fundamentally altered the structure of water supply.
From this, a conclusion can be drawn:
In the short term, the market is indeed acting according to the 'face' of the Federal Reserve, but this is merely a facade.
The long-term value and stability of the market increasingly depend on its internal 'structural water supply system'—that is, institutionalized and compliant capital inflow channels.
Therefore, for the preparation of subsequent processes, the key lies in the shift of analytical perspectives:
Shifting from an excessive focus on short-term, volatile 'weather forecasts' to continuously measuring the flow and health of that 'canal'.
Because as long as the flow of the canal does not stop, even if the reservoir's water level temporarily recedes due to drought, it will eventually fill up and overflow, flowing to higher places.
Short-Term Outlook: Focus on monetary policy, manage volatility.
The core of this stage is the uncertainty of the external macro environment, which directly affects the market's short-term sentiment and price fluctuations. Core Focus:
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Interest rate decisions, economic outlook summaries, and Chairman Powell's speech tone are the absolute focus of the market. Any hawkish or dovish signals will be quickly amplified.
Key Economic Data: CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) and other inflation data will directly affect the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's future actions.
Market Performance:
High volatility, range consolidation.
In the absence of clear macro benefits or drawbacks, the market will most likely maintain a large range for a 'tug-of-war', that is, a confrontation between structural buying and macro selling pressure.
Long-Term Outlook: Measure 'water flow', grasp trends
The core of this stage is the structural changes within the market, which act like a 'canal', providing continuous and stable value support to the market, determining its long-term trend.
Core Focus:
How structural funds flow in and the evolution of regulatory frameworks.
The clarification of regulatory policies in major markets such as the US and Hong Kong is a system guarantee for attracting more mainstream funds into the market.
Performance:
The value baseline may rise: although there will be fluctuations in the short term, in the long run, due to continuous net buying, the market's value center and price bottom will steadily rise.
On-chain long-term insights:
The core narrative of the market is a profound and lasting transfer of its ownership structure.
Transitioning from a speculative market dominated by short-term liquidity to a configuration market driven by long-term value storage.
On-chain data comprehensively corroborates this process;
The supply side is being locked and solidified at an unprecedented scale, while the demand side is seeing the emergence of structural new forces from the mainstream world.
Market Tuning:
The current market is in the 'consolidation digestion period' of a 'structural bull market'.
Its surface calm or volatility does not mask the ongoing reinforcement of the internal structure.
This is a phase that requires patience, shifting the analytical focus from short-term price predictions to measuring long-term structural changes.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The decline in new liquidity is causing the market to lean towards inventory fluctuations, possibly with participants watching and negotiating.
Whale liquidity supply is abundant, supporting BTC's high-level volatility.
BTC is weakly accumulating on exchanges, with a current slight outflow from exchanges.
The supply of short-term participants is declining, with the inventory structure becoming significant.
Global purchasing power is declining, and the market is gradually returning to rationality and calm.
The chip structure shows support at 102,000, and the upward momentum above 110,500 is weakening.
Market Tuning:
Inventory Game, High-Level Fluctuations
The current market is primarily focused on inventory games, possibly waiting for a turning point in high-level fluctuations.
On-chain Short-Term Observation:
The risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating high derivative risk.
New active addresses are at a medium-low level.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
Net positions of BTC on exchanges are in a state of continuous large outflows, with ETH experiencing a slight outflow.
Global purchasing power has slightly decreased, while stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking 95,000~100,000 is 80%;
Market Tuning:
In the short term, overall market sentiment is relatively neutral and cautious, with no signs of frenzy or panic. Unless there are particularly sudden news impacts, this week's expectations remain consistent with last week, with the market being affected by derivatives while leaning towards volatility, and the probability of direct significant retracement and a large squeeze is low.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not constitute directional opinions on investment; please consider carefully and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
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