Bitcoin's price fluctuated wildly. Yesterday, BTC rose to a high of $109,000, then reports emerged that Trump is considering military intervention, causing Bitcoin to plummet by 6,000 points. In the early hours, BTC bottomed at 103,300 and rebounded to around 105,000. In the past six months, the key factor driving the market has been Trump. Such sharp rises and falls are generally seen as violent washout phases, a prelude to a trend change. Recent operations must pay attention to position sizing and stop-loss protection! Bitcoin faces difficulty in breaking through effectively in the short term, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish outlook on rallies. Currently, Asian markets are bottom-fishing, beware of sell-offs in the European and American evening sessions. The market is still in a range; the bottom of the 4-hour range is 103,300, and the top is 109,000. Near the bottom, a short-term long position can be taken. Currently, there has been no breakout, and there is short-term pressure at 106,100 for a potential short. Watch to see if 106,100 can be effectively broken; the downtrend remains unchanged, and the highs are continuously decreasing.
From the 1-hour indicators, today's range is between 2472 and 2582. To be safe, it is recommended to wait until Ethereum stabilizes above the moving average on the 1-hour level before considering entering a long position. The Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on the 19th. Place a long order at 2492, and a stop-loss for the long order at 2472 can be set at 2452.
Currently, SOLSOL is dominated by bears in the small timeframe. Short-term rebounds can be made at the 146 and 144 levels. The resistance above is at 152.6 and 154.4 for potential shorts. The 144-142 range is the low point of the last sharp decline; the fact that it hasn’t been broken shows there is strong buying pressure here, so it won't easily break down. For those seeking stability, it is advisable to place orders at these two levels. 150.3 is a critical resistance level, and if it doesn't break, it will be hard to push higher.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting
Tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting. This time, there is a 100% certainty that interest rates will not be cut. Although it is basically confirmed that rates will not be cut, attention should be paid to Powell's speech and the changes in the dot plot, which may lead to significant volatility. This meeting is also to set a tone before September. If it still leans hawkish, the market may continue to be stagnant!!!
Besides these superficial data points, we should also look at the underlying logic of why the U.S. is not cutting interest rates. The reason is that during this round of dollar tidal waves, there hasn't been enough cheap asset acquisition. An impulsive rate cut could trigger internal inflation in the U.S., forcing the use of stablecoins and other unconventional methods to buy time for finding other solutions. However, if Trump does indeed militarily intervene in Iran (such as bombing nuclear facilities), it could trigger a "inflation-interest rate" death spiral: Iran's retaliatory blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to extreme levels above $120, directly raising the U.S. CPI by about 2.5 percentage points. The war could lead to soaring fiscal deficits → a surge in U.S. debt issuance → global sell-off of U.S. debt → weakening of the dollar's safe-haven appeal → gold and Bitcoin become ultimate hedging tools. What our market needs to recognize is that the dot plot is gradually becoming a "bottom-line statement," and the actual path of interest rates depends on the outcomes of Trump's actions (trade/war/TACO deals) and the risks of market collapse (such as a violent drop in U.S. stocks). The power struggle between Trump and Powell continues.
In short, I will pay special attention to the Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's speech in the near future. Powell's stance on interest rate cuts, tariffs, and inflation, as well as key attention to the dot plot, will affect the short-term market. The U.S. and Japan will hold interest rate meetings in the next two days, both of which are significant news, so volatility will be considerable. The spot market is still difficult to trade; it is better to continue with swing trading for a higher win rate.
