BTC Short-Term Trend Analysis: Battle for Key Level 105240
Consolidation in the 105000-106000 range, the showdown between bulls and bears is imminent!
Current Technical Landscape
Key Support:
104800-105000 (4-hour EMA120 + previous low accumulation zone)
If broken, it may test 103500 (weekly support level)
Key Resistance:
106200-106500 (Area that faced multiple resistances in June). Breaking through opens up space to 108000-110000)
Bull-Bear Game Signals:
RSI (4H): 52 (neutral, no overbought/oversold signals)
Trading Volume: Recent contraction and consolidation, needs increased volume to confirm direction
Short-Term Trend Projection (1-3 days) Bullish Scenario (60% probability)
1. Hold 105000 support, slight rebound to 106200
2. Break through 106500 with volume → Accelerate testing 108000
3. Trigger short-stop losses, driving FOMO buying
Bearish Scenario (40% probability)
1. Break below 104800 → Rapid drop to 103500
2. If 103500 fails → Deep correction to 100000 psychological level
3. Liquidate leveraged long positions (current bullish leverage ratio is relatively high)
Three Signals to Watch Closely
CME Futures Gap: Currently, there is an unfilled gap at 103800-104200
If filled, it may trigger a downward inertia
Exchange Whale Movements: Large deposits and withdrawals on Binance/Coinbase, large orders above 100,000 USDT buying and selling ratio
Funding Rate Changes: Perpetual contract rate > 0.1% → Beware of bullish overheating; rate < -0.05% → Risk of bearish squeeze
Practical Strategy Recommendations
✔ Short-term Traders: Trade within the range of 104800-106200** High sell low buy, follow the trend if any direction breaks +3%
Swing Traders: Maintain long positions if holding above 104800, reduce positions to 103500 if broken and reassess
Leverage Warning: Recommend ≤5x leverage under current volatility, set unconventional stop-loss (e.g., 104750 instead of 104800)
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