#美联储FOMC会议

As of the FOMC meeting on June 17-18, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, continuing the high policy interest rate trend since the end of 2023. The main reasons include: inflation remains high (affected by tariffs and oil price fluctuations), increased geopolitical risks, and unstable economic growth, which keeps the Fed cautious about the timing of rate cuts.

The policy statement and economic outlook (dot-plot) indicate that the committee expects only one rate cut this year, with the earliest window for a cut falling in September or later. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they will continue to monitor developments in trade policy and inflation expectations, and do not plan to rush into a pivot due to short-term pressures.

For the market, this represents a medium-term liquidity stance that remains neutrally tight: the stock market and crypto assets may be constrained until there are clear signals of a rate cut. If future trade and Middle Eastern risks decrease, and inflation stabilizes, it will further open up rate cut space. For the crypto market, paying attention to the Fed's subsequent statement tone, especially regarding assessments of inflation and geopolitical risks, is an important basis for judging the next wave of market trends.