Is the recent market making it hard for you to understand?
Bitcoin#BTC After several surges, Ethereum has pulled back.#ETH Also turning down after a failed breakout, it looks stable, but there are undercurrents flowing beneath 💥.

Today, let's talk about why BTC and ETH have weakened recently and what might happen next.

🟠 Bitcoin: Too many people are making money, and they have started to sell.

First, let's talk about Bitcoin.
Over the past month, BTC has been performing well within an upward channel, with most people in a profitable state. Data shows that 98% of coin holders are already in profit!

The result is quite natural—everyone has started to choose to lock in profits.

Especially those who have held coins for 6 to 12 months as 'mid-term players' have been selling particularly aggressively recently. According to Glassnode data, in just one day, this group achieved 904 million USD in profits, accounting for 83% of all realized profits on the network, directly ranking second on the annual single-day profit list 🥈!

What does this lead to?
👉 Selling pressure surged, BTC dropped from a high of 108,990 USD back to 106,853 USD, falling back into the previous consolidation zone.

🧓 Old players can hold steady, but new investors can't withstand the pressure.

In contrast, old holders (over 1 year) are quite steady now, not participating in the panic sell-off. Their SOPR indicator (reflecting the intensity of selling profits) has dropped from 3.4 to 1.8, significantly reducing selling pressure.

Translated to:
🧠 Newly purchased coins are being sold, while old Bitcoin continues to lie still.

This 'new selling, old holding' situation will keep the market in oscillation. If new investors continue to sell and old holders continue to ignore, Bitcoin will likely remain within 104,000 to 106,000 USD, with no significant market movement 📉.

Can we break through 107,000 and challenge 110,000?
👀 Let's see if the new short-term players are willing to hold on a bit longer.

🟣 Ethereum: Another failed attempt to break through; support is precarious.

After discussing Bitcoin, let's take a look at the situation with Ethereum.
ETH recently attempted to break through 2,680 USD but failed again; afterwards, it was pressed down by bears, retracing to a low of 2,450 USD and is currently consolidating.

From a technical perspective:

  • The short-term trend line has been broken.

  • Both MACD and RSI are in a bearish state.

  • Prices are also below the 100-hour moving average.

📉 The rise is limited, and the risk of decline still exists; ETH faces significant pressure in the short term.

🎯 Where is the key point for Ethereum now?

Resistance level above:

  • 2,540 USD: The first hurdle for short-term trading.

  • 2,565 USD: 50% retracement level.

  • 2,620~2,680 USD: The hope zone for a reversal 🚀.

Support levels below:

  • 2,500 USD: Psychological barrier.

  • 2,450 USD: Already tested once.

  • 2,320 / 2,240 / 2,150: If broken, these levels will be tested sequentially.

That is to say, if ETH cannot hold 2,450, it may have to explore lower support.
But as long as it can firmly stand above 2,620 and break through 2,680, there is still an opportunity to challenge 2,800+ ⚡️.

🧩 A summary for friends in the crypto circle:

✅ Bitcoin: Mid-term holders are cashing out significantly, old players are holding steady, and the market is unlikely to break through in the short term; oscillation in the range may continue.
✅ Ethereum: Adjusting after a failed breakout; if it breaks support, it may retrace deeper, with short-term attention on the struggle between 2,450 and 2,620.

📌 The current market is in a state of 'appearing calm, but with significant internal strife,' suitable for light positions and waiting for a clear direction.

If you want to catch the next big market movement, remember to keep a close eye on the movements of new coin holders and key resistance/support points, or you might get washed out unexpectedly~ 👀💨

DYOR, manage your risk well, and may everyone sail smoothly in the crypto world! 🌊

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