๐ Key Changes
Price: $105,224.13 (-2.08%) โ broke below EMA(7) & EMA(25)
RSI: 44.18 (down from 58.04) โ clear bearish shift
MACD Histogram: -408.55 (prev: -212.70) โ accelerating downside
Volume: $1.71B nominal, but actual volume dropped โ no capitulation yet
Support Broken: $104,082 breached โ confirms new lower low
---
๐ Key Metrics
Current Price: $105,224.13
EMAs:
EMA(7): $105,764.98 (resistance)
EMA(25): $105,625.95 (resistance)
EMA(99): $98,942.38
RSI(6): 44.18 โ momentum favoring bears
MACD:
DIF: 424.30
DEA: 832.84
Histogram: -408.55
24h Range: $103,371.02 โ $107,735.21
---
๐ Technical Breakdown
1. Bearish EMA Breakdown โ price below EMA(7) and EMA(25)
2. MACD Weakness โ steep histogram drop = strong bearish signal
3. Volume Down โ no signs of panic selling yet
4. RSI Breakdown โ lost bullish territory
5. Structure โ forming lower highs and lower lows
---
๐ฎ Price Prediction
12โ24h Outlook
๐ Base Case (80%): $104,082 retest โ $103,371 โ $102,500
๐ Bull Case (20%): Bounce to $105,625 (EMA 25) โ likely rejection
3-Day Outlook
Close <$103,371 targets $100,372
Close >$105,765 required for bullish reversal
---
๐ง Trade Plan
โฑ๏ธ Intraday Trades (4โ6h)
1. ๐ป Short at Resistance
Entry: $105,500 โ $105,600
Target: $105,000 โ $104,500
Stop: $105,750
Trigger: 15m bearish candle
2. ๐ป Breakdown Short
Entry: $104,050
Target: $103,500 โ $103,000
Stop: $104,300
Trigger: Volume >1.5K on breakdown
๐ Swing Trades
1. ๐ป Trend Short
Entry: $105,200
Target: $104,000 โ $103,000
Stop: $105,500
Trigger: RSI < 40
2. ๐ผ Aggressive Counter-Trend Long
Entry: $103,300
Target: $104,000 โ $104,500
Stop: $103,100
Trigger: 4h bullish divergence + volume spike
---
โ ๏ธ Risk Management
Position Size: โค1.5% of capital
Profit Booking:
Shorts: 50% at $104,000, 50% at $103,200
Longs: 100% at $104,200 (scalp)
Stop Loss: Max 0.5% of capital
---
๐จ Critical Triggers
- BEARISH CONTINUATION SIGNALS:
! Rejection at $105,625 (EMA 25)
! RSI < 40
! 4h close < $103,371
! Volume > 2K on breakdown
+ BULLISH REVERSAL SIGNS:
! Close > $105,765 (EMA 7)
! MACD histogram > -300
! Volume spike > 3K
! RSI > 50
---
๐ Summary
BTC/USDT has confirmed a bearish reversal:
Breakdown Zone: $104,082 โ $103,371
EMA Cluster Resistance: $105,625 โ $105,765
Best Trade Setups:
1. Shorts from $105,550 (stop $105,750)
2. Breakdown shorts below $104,050 (stop $104,300)
3. Counter-trend long at $103,300 (stop $103,100 โ small size only)
> ๐งจ Note: MACD histogram shows strongest bearish momentum in days. Low volume could lead to a false bounce, but momentum remains weak. Expect $100,372 test if $103,371 breaks.
---
๐ Follow for real-time crypto breakdowns and scalping signals
Take Trade From here ๐ $BTC