📍FED Decision and Its Impact
• The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, as widely expected in previous analyses.
• The strategy remains to wait for new data, particularly on tariffs, geopolitics, and domestic economic indicators.
📈 Still for 2025
• The release of the “dot plots” — the graph that shows the projections of FOMC members for the rates — should indicate only one interest rate cut in 2025, less than expected in March.
• A Reuters survey showed that all but two forecasts indicate maintaining the rate until at least September 2025.
🧭 Risks and Influencing Factors
1. Inflationary Pressures
Import tariffs and rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East are raising inflation risks.
2. Labor Market Still Firm, but Signs of Cooling— Downward revisions in March and April data were recorded; unemployment claims rose; despite this, job creation remains solid.
🕒 Timeline and Next Steps
• June 17–18: FOMC Meeting.
• June 18, 2 PM (ET): Release of the official statement.
• June 18, 2:30 PM (ET): Press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell.
📝 What to Watch After the Meeting
• Tone of the statement and the press conference — especially regarding the labor market — may alter cut expectations.
• Revisions in the dot plots: reduction in cut expectations or postponement of cuts.
• Subsequent economic data (inflation, consumption indicators) will be decisive in defining the cut schedule.
In summary:
The Fed maintained the interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, adopting a “wait-and-see” stance. The new projection is for only one interest rate cut by the end of 2025, reflecting concerns about inflation and economic uncertainties.