What is the current situation?

Bears have absolute control: Price 104812 is tightly held down by all moving averages: 7-day moving average 106629, 30-day moving average 107198

MACD indicator green bars -493 are getting longer, downward momentum is still increasing.

RSI has dropped to 18, below 30 is considered oversold, but historically, after being oversold, it can still continue to drop.

Should we short or go long? Only consider shorting, resolutely do not go long!

The price is like being pressed by a ceiling, every rebound fails to surpass 106000.

All technical indicators have not shown reversal signals; catching the bottom is like trying to catch a flying knife with bare hands.

How to operate specifically?

Conservative strategy recommended:

For those with no position: lie flat and watch the show, wait for the price to rush above 106000 and stabilize before considering entry.

For those holding positions: reduce holdings near 105800 during the rebound.

If it breaks below 104500, immediately stop loss to prevent a sharp drop and being trapped.

Aggressive strategy with stop loss: short with light positions at the current price ≤10% of positions, stop loss above 106300.

Add to short positions when rebounding to 105500, target 103300 before the previous low → 102000.

What situation allows for bottom fishing?

Currently, bottom fishing is prohibited! Unless the following conditions are met:

Price strongly breaks through 106000 and stabilizes.

MACD green bars shorten by over 50%, from -493 to within -240.

RSI returns above 30 and continues to rise.

In summary: The current market is like going down stairs, operating in the direction of bears is safer. It’s better to miss the rebound than to take risks catching the falling knife! Keep cash on hand, and wait for the green light of trend reversal before making a move.

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