On June 17, just one day before the FOMC decision, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $422.70 million. That alone is enough to rattle confidence. ARKB pulled $191 million, FBTC dropped $208 million, and others followed. The outflow wiped out the previous day’s strong inflow, flipping the weekly momentum entirely. This wasn’t slow rotation. It was a retreat.
It wasn’t just the ETF flows that told the story. Binance margin data showed that traders, too, were stepping away. The margin long-short ratio for BTC/USDC dropped from 40 to nearly 36 throughout the day, a clear signal that longs were closing out. The isolated margin borrow amount spiked briefly at times, but never sustained. Leverage wasn’t building. It was flickering and then disappearing. Even the overall growth of margin debt remained shallow and scattered, finishing the session near zero or below.
These weren’t signs of a market preparing to break out. They were signs of a market holding its breath. Institutional players stepped out first, pulling hundreds of millions from ETF exposure. Margin traders followed, scaling back positions, borrowing cautiously, and refusing to overcommit ahead of Powell’s remarks.
No one wanted to be long into uncertainty. Not when the Fed might double down on higher-for-longer. Not when liquidity is thin and every basis point of interest rate policy can flip the entire macro narrative.
If Bitcoin manages to rise from here, it won’t be because the market was positioned for strength. It will be in spite of that. Maybe on a short squeeze, maybe on dovish surprise. But from the data, it’s clear the dominant posture was caution. The money backed out. The leverage evaporated. The market voted with its feet.
