Bitcoin is slipping, not crashing. It is hesitating, not folding. At $104,379, down almost 3 percent on the day, the market looks soft, indecisive, and overloaded with anticipation. This is no longer just a chart pattern. It is a macro setup disguised as technical congestion. And at the center of it all sits the June 18 FOMC meeting.
The Fed is expected to hold rates. That part is already priced in. What matters is Powell’s tone. Every word, every pause, every framing of risk will matter. Bitcoin does not need a rate cut. It needs the hint of one. A shift in language, a softening of stance, even a subtle emphasis on balanced risks could be enough to flip sentiment.
Right now, BTC on Binance is showing weakness. RSI on the hourly chart is down to 34, MACD is deep in red, and the short-term trend is bleeding through every layer of support. Large order flow is mildly positive, but medium and small orders are net negative. Inflow on the 15-minute scale is minus 5.2 BTC. The past five days show a net outflow of over 1,090 BTC from large traders. This is not panic, it is quiet repositioning.
Technically, Bitcoin has dropped below short-term moving averages and is hovering just above the psychological $104,000 mark. Support is thinning. The symmetrical triangle structure from May is now more memory than formation. There is no breakout. There is no breakdown. Only waiting.
If Powell gives the market something to work with, Bitcoin can rally fast. There are too many overexposed shorts, too much negative funding, too many players leaning in the same direction. A dovish signal could squeeze price toward $112,000 and beyond. If he stays firm, if he stresses inflation control and avoids forward guidance, Bitcoin likely grinds lower. The next support zones are $100,000 and $93,000, with the 200-day EMA offering structural backup.
Now is not the time to guess. It is a time to listen. If you are already positioned, protect your range. If you are flat, wait for the market to choose. This is not about candlesticks anymore. It is about language.
And tomorrow, that language will either ignite the next leg up or pull the floor out from under the chart.
