【Virtual Currency】Can Bitcoin Break Through $110,000 in the Short Term? Market and Geopolitical Games Coexist

Recently, Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating around $105,000, making multiple attempts to break through the key resistance at $110,000, but has not achieved a substantial breakthrough. The market presents complex signals, with underlying on-chain indicators showing strong buying pressure, yet short-term profit-taking pressure is also increasingly apparent. In the current range-bound oscillation, investors need to closely monitor changes in key resistance and support levels, as well as the potential impact of external macro and geopolitical risks on prices.

According to the market's MVRV Z value, which currently remains at +0.6, it indicates that the buying power for Bitcoin is still solid and has not entered the overheating zone. This situation correlates with over 80% of short-term holders still in profit, suggesting that although the market maintains a bullish trend, a large number of short-term profit-takers may trigger selling pressure within the resistance zone, making it difficult for Bitcoin's price to steadily break through $110,000. Fluctuations within the range are significant, with Bitcoin's price consolidating between $104,000 and $110,000; any future pullbacks may be a temporary adjustment before a larger upward trend. It is noteworthy that the key resistance levels at $108,822 and $110,550 form a clear price ceiling, while the support levels at $106,220 and $102,780 provide a safety boundary for prices. Market inflow data shows that, despite a temporary weakening of momentum, some long-term funds continue to build positions.

The geopolitical situation also adds uncertainty to the market. Recently, the escalating tensions in the Middle East have drawn investors' attention, causing Bitcoin's price to fluctuate under the influence of related news. Although drone attacks in Tehran and Tel Aviv have raised alarms, the U.S. response to the situation remains unclear, and the market generally expects a clearer follow-up trend. The S&P 500 index and Bitcoin's movements show a certain degree of synchronization, with investor sentiment remaining cautious. Rajiv Sawhney, head of international portfolio management, points out that Bitcoin is unlikely to make significant upward moves in the short term unless the role and level of U.S. involvement in geopolitical matters become clear, with prices expected to remain within the range of $103,000 to $109,000. Institutional investors tend to prefer medium- to long-term positioning, believing that the overall risk asset environment in the market remains cautiously defensive. In this context of macro uncertainty, the market is more susceptible to disturbances from unexpected news, making the flexibility of trading strategies particularly important.