“The contraction and fluctuation is the calm before the storm—either wait for the wind or create the eye of the storm.”
Update on technical predicament
Bollinger Bands narrow to 2548/2512
Trading volume shrinks to 118,000 ETH
MACD energy bars have been close to the zero axis for 16 hours, creating a monthly extreme
Calibration of sudden variables
Grayscale ETHE: Net outflow of 170 million USD in the last 5 days
V God address: On-chain confirmation transferred to the exchange for 8000 ETH
Federal Reserve impact: Nasdaq futures drop expands to 0.68%
Probability of breaking point re-evaluation
Liquidation heat map: Accumulation at 2535-2550 ** 42 million ** Long stop loss
Maximum pain point for options: Down to 2460
Historical reference: Trading volume only 93,000 ETH one hour before the break on June 18, currently more dangerous
Gold structure core prediction: Probability of downward break rises to 75%
Simplified liquidation strategy
Long and short triggering mechanism
↓ Downward break
Condition: 1-hour close below 2490
Chain: Triggering $100 million liquidation → Testing 2430 support
↑ Upward reversal
Condition: Volume breakthrough at 2548 + V-shaped rebound in US stocks
Chain: Shorts forced down to 2600-2620
