$BTC

remains range-bound around $105K, volatile between ~$103.6K and ~$107.6K during the day . Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June 17–18 FOMC meeting, #BTC dipped below $102K but rebounded, reflecting traders’

risk-precautionary moves

🔍 Technical Signal

Cointelegraph’s analysis suggests that if BTC holds above $102K, it might rally ~25% to new highs—potentially crossing $130K—based on historical patterns.

🌐 Geopolitical War Impact

Conflicts in the Middle East (e.g., Israel-Iran tensions) have yielded mixed results: Bitcoin initially sold off, but later found support above $105K as safe-haven demand shifted . Analysts note that while gold is outperforming in crisis, BTC still sees renewed interest if fiat and oil prices become unstable.

🏛️ Policy & Trump Influence

The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act on June 17, establishing federal stablecoin regulations and moving the bill to the House—seen as an institutional win for crypto.

Meanwhile, Trump-backed policies include appointing crypto‑friendly officials, creating a digital asset “working group,” and even launching a strategic Bitcoin reserve, signaling a pro-crypto stance.

However, critics allege potential conflicts of interest: Trump’s promotion of a memecoin led to accusations of self-enrichment and sparked legislation like the “Stop Trump in Crypto Act”.

🏦 Institutional Flow

BBVA now recommends wealthy clients hold 3–7% in crypto—mainly Bitcoin and Ether—signaling mainstream institutional adoption . MicroStrategy raised $1B in preferred stock to buy 10K BTC, joining a growing list of corporate treasury strategies riding on Bitcoin.

Prediction: June–July 2025

Bullish case (35%): If BTC stays above $102K and macro sentiment remains stable, it could rally toward $120K–$130K.

Base case (55%): Bitcoin consolidates in the $102K–$108K band, awaiting clear signals from Fed, war headlines, ETF inflows.

Bearish case (10%): A Fed hawkish surprise, escalation in Middle East conflict, or negative crypto regulation could send BTC down to $95K–$100K.