#美联储FOMC会议

🇺🇸 Federal Reserve Decision Preview: High Probability of Holding Interest Rates Steady, Market Awaits

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision tomorrow, and the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged. Although inflation data shows a gradual decline, the Fed still needs to observe more evidence to confirm that the economy is cooling steadily. President Trump has recently publicly pressured Powell to lower interest rates and hinted that if policy remains unchanged, he may "take certain measures," adding a political dimension to the decision-making process.

📊 Three Possible Paths

1. Maintain interest rates (high probability)

Core inflation has slightly decreased, but still far from the 2% target.

The job market remains resilient, and the Fed has no urgent reason to change course.

2. Lower interest rates (medium to low probability)

If considering election pressures and economic outlook uncertainties, may slightly signal easing.

But could trigger market concerns about "political interference in monetary policy."

3. Raise interest rates (almost impossible)

Only possible in the event of unexpected inflation rise; current signs show very low likelihood.

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🧭 Trading Strategy Suggestions (Before the Decision)

Stock Market (S&P 500 / Nasdaq)

→ Take a wait-and-see approach, avoid chasing highs before major policy decisions.

→ If rates are maintained, the market may rise in the short term; it is advisable to wait for a pullback to position.

Gold / Bitcoin (safe-haven assets)

→ If the market interprets this as a signal for long-term high rates, gold will benefit.

→ Bitcoin can be observed for capital safe-haven sentiment; consider building small positions on dips.

Dollar Index / US Treasuries

→ If the statement leans hawkish, the dollar may strengthen, and short-term bond yields may rise.

→ If easing expectations are released, US Treasury prices will rise (yields fall).

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🧠 Conclusion

This decision is a balance test for Powell between political pressure and economic realities. If the Fed chooses to observe patiently and maintain interest rates, the market will interpret a "dovish hold" as positive in the short term. Regardless of the outcome, investors should cautiously manage risk and avoid recklessly increasing positions before the policy is announced.