The Fed is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 4.25–4.50%, continuing its cautious stance amid still‑elevated inflation and geopolitical volatility. Policymakers will release updated economic projections (“dot plot”), likely signaling just one cut this year—down from earlier expectations of two—reflecting risks from tariffs and high oil prices. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will be scrutinized for clues on future moves, balancing persistent inflation above target and a weakening labor market. Market pricing shows near-zero odds of a June cut, with first easing penciled in for September. Key uncertainties include the inflationary impact of U.S. tariffs and oil‑price swings tied to Middle East tensions. Overall, expect stability now and a data‑dependent, cautious approach looking ahead.
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