#FOMCMeeting Here’s the latest on the #FOMCMeeting (June 17–18, 2025):
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🧭 What’s Happening
0-1The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting over two days—June 17–18, 2025—with the policy decision and Summary of Economic Projections (dot‑plot) due at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, June 18 .
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🔍 Market Expectations
Rate decision: Nearly unanimous consensus that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, with CME data showing a 99.9% probability against a rate cut .
Dot‑plot outlook: Analysts forecast only one 25 bp rate cut in 2025—down from the two cuts projected in March—due to tariff-driven inflation and geopolitical volatility .
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🌐 Key Risks on the Fed’s Radar
1. Geopolitical tensions: Middle East conflicts have pushed oil prices higher, potentially reigniting inflation .
2. Tariffs: Trump’s tariff policies are feeding into inflation and creating downside risks to growth—policymakers are adopting a “wait-and-see” stance .
3. Labor & inflation data: May showed mixed signs—cooler inflation but softening job indicators—reinforcing a cautious approach .
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📊 What to Watch on Wednesday (June 18)
Policy statement + dot‑plot: Expect guidance to emphasize data‑dependency, with elevated inflation and interest-rate uncertainty.
Press conference (2 pm ET): Fed Chair Powell’s tone will be critical—investors will seek clues about timing and magnitude of future rate cuts.
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🧾 Bottom Line
The Fed is almost certain to hold steady at 4.25%–4.50% this week. What matters next is the tone of the dot‑plot and Powell’s remarks—markets are deeply focused on whether just one cut is anticipated in 2025, and when it might occur (unlikely before September).
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