Experts warn that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it could trigger a global risk-off movement.
The options market recorded strong premiums for put options, highlighting short-term bearish sentiment, with traders ramping up hedging.
Bitcoin (BTC) surged to 108K USD on June 16, thanks to the active long positions of traders despite escalating Israel-Iran tensions over the weekend. However, BTC quickly dropped to 105K USD as the 'war premium' lost its momentum.
In light of the unexpected price volatility, Tracy Jinn, COO of MEXC exchange, shared with TinTucBitcoin that the market is really facing a core risk from this conflict.
"There remains one significant risk: the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 20% of global oil production (20 million barrels) passes through this narrow strip, and even a minor conflict could spike energy prices."
The market is in a tug-of-war
Jinn asserts that if this scenario occurs, the global inflation rate is likely to experience a strong upward trend by the end of the year. This will trigger a wave of risk-off sentiment, negatively impacting the cryptocurrency and stock markets.
"As cryptocurrency trading becomes increasingly linked to macro assets, Bitcoin is now viewed as 'macro beta', making it more susceptible to new volatility."
There are speculations about the possibility of U.S. involvement in the conflict, but Congressman Thomas Massie asserts that only Congress has the authority to agree to U.S. engagement.
The prediction website Polymarket estimates the probability of the United States declaring war on Iran before July to be only 2%.
The Monday market newsletter from QCP Capital also aligns with Jinn and warns that if the United States intervenes, all risk assets may undergo significant 'repricing'.
"An Iran blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil prices to soar. If the U.S. intervenes militarily, the market will reprice all risk assets."
At the time the news was released, the BTC market recorded increasing defensive signals as the 25 Delta Risk Reversal (25RR) turned negative.
This implies short-term bearish sentiment and a strong demand for protection of long positions through put options, outpacing call options. Traders are extremely focused on hedging against deeper declines.
Source: Amberdata
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs attracted over 412 million USD in inflows on June 16, reflecting strong confidence from major institutions. However, whether this trend will continue remains uncertain.
Jinn analyzes that if this inflow momentum is maintained in the medium term, BTC has a chance to reach 150K USD in Q4. However, in the short term, the king coin is likely to face 'liquidation hunts', according to data shared by analyst Will Woo.
If this scenario unfolds, the next price attraction zone could be in the 100K–103K USD range, before the trend reverses towards the 108K–110K USD area. A liquidity sweep to the upside will be triggered if there are any positive agreements between Iran and Israel.
Source: CoinGlass
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-mat-gia-manh-giua-cang-thang-trung-dong/
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