#FOMCMeeting

🕒 Meeting Overview

The Federal Open Market Committee met over two days (Tuesday–Wednesday) and is scheduled to announce its decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections at 2:00 p.m. EDT on June 18, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT .

🔒 Policy Decision

• The Fed is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25–4.50%, a stance maintained since December .

• Markets assign a ~99% probability to this decision .

📈 Key Factors Influencing Decision

• Trade & Tariff Uncertainty: New tariffs and geopolitical tensions have clouded the inflation outlook, prompting a cautious “wait‑and‑see” approach .

• Inflation and Labor Market: Inflation has cooled close to the Fed’s 2% target, and employment remains strong .

• Geopolitical risks: Middle East tensions and volatile oil prices are adding complexity to policy outlook .

📊 What to Watch Today

• A key highlight will be the “dot plot”, revealing how many rate cuts FOMC members foresee in 2025. Analysts expect fewer cuts—possibly only one—after earlier projections for two .

• During the press conference, Powell’s tone on future cuts—whether dovish or cautious—will strongly influence markets.

💡 Market Implications

• Bond Markets: Investors are shying away from long-term Treasuries, reflecting diminished expectations for aggressive rate cuts .

• Currency: Bank of America warns that even if the Fed adopts a more hawkish stance, any USD gain may be short-lived due to structural factors .

• Loans & Mortgages: With rates held steady, borrowing costs remain high—mortgage rates have climbed (~6.9% for a 30-year fixed) .