Bitcoin is approaching a key resistance level on the MVRV Z-Score indicator – a turning point that has defined past cycles.
Can this resistance level stop the growth?
The Fear & Greed Index has not yet sent out a “hyper greed” signal.
This is an area often associated with Bitcoin (BTC) cycle peaks. The last three historical peaks have coincided with extreme market sentiment, tight liquidity, and concentrated supply, pushing BTC into hot, overbought conditions.
So, does the current lack of euphoria indicate that the market still has room to grow? Maybe. However, when combined with Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score hitting a key resistance level, this could be an indication that the market is approaching a tipping point.
To put this into perspective, the MVRV Z-Score compares the market cap to the average on-chain cost of Bitcoin. When this metric is high, it means that holders are holding a large amount of unrealized profits. That’s fine until many people decide to take profits.
Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Currently, the Z-Score is still significantly below the red zone – the area that used to mark macro tops, where the gap between market cap and realized cap widened too much. However, the structure has shown signs of breaking down.
Even as Bitcoin crossed the six-figure mark and made two new highs, the Z-Score still fell short of its historical overbought levels. There was no sign of over-exuberance. But the market still corrected, with multiple declines of over 20%.
According to TinTucBitcoin, this reflects a key shift, indicating a new market variable is emerging.
Cold Sentiment, High Risk: A New Bitcoin Peak?
In previous bull runs, the FOMO effect was so strong that the Fear & Greed Index shot up to the maximum; Bitcoin rose sharply before being sold off heavily. But now, the index has not reached the excitement level, even though Bitcoin is having trouble breaking out strongly.
What is the reason? Macro uncertainty makes capital flows cautious, speculative sentiment is priced out, investors gradually prioritize defense or take profits when profit margins are tightened.
Bitcoin is currently only about 7% above the short-term holders’ cost of holding at $98,000. With no clear structural bottom in place and volatility still anchored to macro risks, the FOMO effect is extremely fragile.
Source: Glassnode
If this balance is broken? Bitcoin could face the most silent price peak ever in the history of the cryptocurrency market.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-price-increases-but-the-market-is-living/
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