Background Information: The term of Federal Reserve Chair Powell will end in May 2026, and the market is focused on the direction of his policies in the coming months. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to declines in U.S. stock markets and Bitcoin prices, and investors are closely watching the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and its interest rate decisions.

Main Event: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and may do so again in July. If the conflict in the Middle East leads to sustained increases in oil prices, the timeline for rate cuts may be delayed. The FOMC will release the latest summary of economic projections, including the expected interest rates, unemployment rates, GDP, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for the end of 2025. In March, most committee members anticipated the interest rate to be between 3.75% and 4% by the end of 2025, with the current rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, implying there could be two 25 basis point cuts before the end of the year.

Impact and Significance: Powell may not be reappointed, and the next eight FOMC meetings will determine his policy legacy. The market expects rate cuts during his term, but historically, departing chairs tend to adopt hawkish policies in their final year. Powell may adopt a 'high-pressure maintenance' strategy, delaying rate cuts. Investors are advised to pay attention to Powell's press conferences for clearer policy direction.

#BTC