#FOMCMeeting Here’s the latest on the FOMC’s June 17–18, 2025 meeting:
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🏦 What to Expect
1. Rate Decision
Fed officials are overwhelmingly expected to hold the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, where it has been since December 2024 .
Market odds: Nearly 100% likelihood of no change on Wednesday, June 18 at 2 pm EDT .
2. Key Drivers
Geopolitical risk & oil: Tensions in the Middle East (Israel‑Iran missile exchanges) have pushed oil prices up, fueling inflation concerns .
Tariffs: Ongoing U.S. tariff threats could both slow growth and elevate inflation—posing a dual risk that demands cautious Fed policy .
Domestic data: May’s weak retail sales and sluggish industrial output signal economic softening .
Labor market & inflation: Employment remains strong and inflation is easing (~2.4%), but data is mixed .
3. **Summary of Economic Projections (“Dot Plot”)**
The updated projections are anticipated to show fewer rate cuts this year—possibly dropping from two expected cuts to just one .
Most analysts expect cuts not before September, though some foresee potential easing in late summer .
4. Press Conference
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak Wednesday at 2:30 pm EDT, immediately after the rate announcement, offering guidance on economic outlook, policy intentions, and views on inflation risk.
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🔍 Why It Matters
Market impact: The decision—and particularly the dot plot and Powell’s remarks—will be pivotal for financial markets. Expectations for future rate cuts hinge on how the Fed reads evolving risks.
Policy autonomy: With President Trump publicly pushing for cuts and calling Powell a “numbskull” , the Fed’s stance will send a strong signal on whether it’s basing decisions on data or political pressure.
Outlook summary: Likely a continuation of “data-dependent caution” – holding rates steady, citing inflation and trade uncertainty, but perhaps softening on potential cuts later in 2025.
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📅 Key
June 18, 2 pm EDT Rate decision released
June 18, 2:30 pm EDT Powell’s press conference
As soon as minutes are released (~3 weeks later) Minutes publication
You can also cross-check upcoming future meetings per the Fed's schedule—June 17–18 is indeed one of eight regularly scheduled FOMC meetings for 2025 .