The NVT Golden Cross indicator passed the 2.2 level while Bitcoin traded around $105K showing reversal signs.
Bitcoin’s price momentum diverged from blockchain activity as transaction flow slowed against market cap growth.
CryptoQuant data pointed to a possible short setup since overvaluation metrics have aligned with previous local tops.
A Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross indicator has flashed above the 2.2 threshold, signaling a potential short-term reversion risk to investors.
This alert, triggered on June 17, 2025, shows that Bitcoin’s market cap is outpacing transaction volume. That imbalance historically points to a price correction phase as valuation becomes detached from real blockchain activity. The current Bitcoin price stands at $105,500, according to CryptoQuant data.
Source: X NVT Cross Surges as Market Cap Leads Transaction Volume
Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross indicator crossed above the 2.2 level, which often signals that market cap is growing faster than transaction activity. The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) metric compares market capitalization with on-chain volume to assess overvaluation.
The blue line on the chart, which tracks this ratio, surged past key danger zones historically linked with price pullbacks. Bitcoin’s current value of $105,500 appears disconnected from the blockchain’s transaction strength based on this metric.
Such divergence often marks local market tops. On prior occasions shown in the chart, when the blue line spiked above 2.2, price corrections followed shortly after. The visual shows multiple orange dots clustered around past NVT peaks, which coincide with downtrends.
Historically, traders have viewed this signal as an opportunity to short Bitcoin in anticipation of reversion toward the mean. Although short-term in nature, these alerts have influenced intraday and swing trade strategies in crypto markets.
Trading View Shows Tight Correlation With Prior Tops
The NVT Golden Cross pattern has consistently aligned with turning points over the last 18 months. Since early 2024, several spikes above the 2.2 mark were followed by rapid pullbacks.
This pattern repeated in January, March, and October 2024. Every spike into the red zone—where values exceeded 2.2—coincided with yellow markers denoting short alerts. These dots on the CryptoQuant chart serve as visual cues for when conditions suggest Bitcoin may be overvalued.
As the black line shows Bitcoin’s price climbing, the rising blue NVT line warns of price overheating. Traders monitoring this technical relationship may now expect heightened volatility and caution in the near term.
With Bitcoin having broken above $105,000 recently, the timing of this alert could influence market sentiment. Caution could prevail among traders looking for prices to revisit key support zones in the $90K–$100K range if the metric remains elevated.
Will Bitcoin Rebalance as Signal Suggests?
The key question remains—will Bitcoin’s price action respond to the NVT divergence and correct downward, or will demand increase? The NVT alert comes as Bitcoin nears its all-time high, which heightens interest in such reversal signals. Technical traders may interpret the overextended NVT as a natural setup for mean reversion.
The chart displays a consistent trend: sharp rises in the NVT line frequently precede declines in Bitcoin price. This may embolden bears who anticipate a drop if historical patterns hold. CryptoQuant’s indicator, designed for short-term decision-making, highlights overvaluation periods to assist investors. It does not guarantee price action but serves as a leading risk signal.
