In the early session, a thousand-point false signal led many to mistakenly believe the bear market was reversing. As Xiao Ge entered a short position, the market instantly turned into a high-altitude plunge, easily breaking through the middle line of the Bollinger Bands like paper. Some lost their cool during the day and frantically bottom-fished at 103300 deep into the night, firmly believing this was the iron bottom. However, they are now firmly trapped halfway up at 104500, with the promised oversold rebound nowhere to be seen, and their locked positions trembling. Remember, is the lower band of the Bollinger Bands a power-storing spring or a deadly guillotine? Volume is the best judgment standard, and the scenario of rebounding 50 points only to drop 100 points has been repeatedly staged today. Lastly, I ask: how many more times can you withstand the impact of adding positions in your belief that the major correction is over? Is the main force you firmly believe in protecting the market currently using liquidation orders to “erect a monument” for you? Today's market presents a volatile downward pattern. Bitcoin rebounded from 106068 points to 107727 points in the early session but encountered resistance, subsequently starting a staircase decline throughout the day, ultimately reaching an intraday low of 103300 points. Ethereum's trend is highly correlated with Bitcoin, retreating from a high of 2617 points, dipping to a low of 2451 points. Throughout the day, Xiao Ge maintained a bearish outlook, and as the intraday market unfolded, his bearish view was confirmed as expected. Following the trend layout, our VIP swing group precisely set up a short position at 108700, which successfully took profit at 106200, earning 2500 points. Meanwhile, the Ethereum short strategy at 2655 entered simultaneously, successfully taking profit at 2540, netting a gain of 115 points. In the evening, we accurately grasped the market trend, decisively laying out a short position at 106100, and then firmly taking profit at 103809, successfully securing a rich profit space of 2300 points. For Ethereum, we set up a short position at 2566, and when the market corrected to 2466, we timely took profit, steadily earning 100 points.
From the current 4-hour level trend, the Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the price has effectively broken below the middle support level, currently running close to the lower band, presenting a clear bearish trend overall. Although a technical rebound may occur after the price touches the lower band, the rebound strength is expected to be limited, making it difficult to change the current weak pattern. Bitcoin is in an oversold repair window at the 4-hour level, with the MACD indicator showing the fast and slow lines diverging below the zero axis, and the red momentum bars showing no significant signs of contraction. The RSI indicator also remains in the oversold region below 30, indicating that the market is still dominated by bears. The Bollinger Bands channel is starting to show signs of opening, which means volatility is increasing, and there may be larger price fluctuations in the short term. Although some short-term indicators show oversold conditions, considering the overall market sentiment is bearish, any rebound may encounter dense selling pressure above.
Bitcoin: Short near 104300-104800, short-term target 102000
Ethereum: Short near 2500-2520, short-term target 2420