#FOMCMeeting
Here’s a brief recap of the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting:
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*🏦 Key Policy Decision*
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at *4.25%–4.50%*, as widely expected (~99.9% priced in). The updated dot plot now shows just *one rate cut forecasted for 2025*.
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*📊 Economic Outlook & Key Risks*
- *Inflation:* May CPI and PPI were softer than expected, but core inflation remains sticky around *2.8%*.
- *Jobs:* The labor market is still strong (unemployment ~4.2%) but shows subtle signs of cooling.
- *Spending:* Retail sales fell by *0.9% in May*, hinting at slowing consumer demand.
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*🌍 Global & Political Pressures*
- Rising *Middle East tensions* are pushing up energy prices, fueling inflation risks.
- Trade uncertainties and tariff moves add unpredictability to inflation trends.
- Political influence: Despite *Trump’s push for a rate cut*, the Fed stands firm on independence.
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*🔮 Forward Guidance*
The Fed reaffirmed a *data-driven, cautious approach*, staying committed to its *2% inflation target* and full employment.
Balance sheet runoff will continue.
*Chair Powell’s June 18 press conference* is expected to clarify potential timing for rate adjustments.
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*🔍 Bottom Line*
