#FOMCMeeting 🏦 FOMC Meeting June 2025: Crypto Watch in Two Acts
> "Everyone is waiting for the FOMC... but what determines it is not just the interest rate,
but Powell's tone during the press conference."
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1. 📅 Important Schedule
FOMC Meeting: June 17–18, 2025
Rate decision announcement: **Wednesday, June 18 at 14:00 ET (02:00 WIB +1 day)**
Powell's Press Conference starts at approximately **14:30 ET (02:30 WIB)**
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2. 📌 Economic Conditions & Expectations
The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25–4.50%, with slim chances of a cut (~0.4%)
The dot plot is likely to show a reduction in the number of rate cuts this year — only 1 cut vs 2 previously
Geopolitics (Israel–Iran) causing oil prices to rise, threatening stagflation and could make the Fed adopt a more hawkish stance
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3. 🎯 Impact on Crypto
a. BTC in Correlation Zone
Bitcoin price stagnates below $107 k ahead of the Fed decision
A breakout could only occur if there are signals of easing or slightly hawkish
b. SLR More Crucial than Rate
Traders are focusing more on the possibility of changes to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio, not just interest rates
Weak signals from the Fed about liquidity could trigger the next bull run
c. Volatility at Press Conference
Powell's tone is more important than the rate numbers
Hawkish tone → risk-off action in crypto; dovish → quick rebound in BTC and altcoins
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4. ⚠️ Strategies for Crypto Traders
🌐 Scenario 💡 Trader Tactics
Fed keeps rate, hawkish tone Long-short OCO setup in range $101 k–107 k
Neutral/dovish tone Use limit buy near $105–106 k & TP at $108–110 k
High volatility during PC Avoid market orders, use limit + post only
Focus on SLR Watch for changes in SLR guidance — this is the main liquidity trigger
