Here are the key details about the current FOMC meeting (June 17–18, 2025), based on the latest data:
⏰ 1. Meeting schedule & key events
- Dates: June 17–18, 2025 (today and tomorrow).
- Policy statement release: Wednesday, June 18, at 2:00 PM Eastern Time.
- Chairman Powell's press conference: Wednesday, June 18, at 2:30 PM Eastern Time.
📉 2. Interest rate decision
- The Fed is likely to keep rates in the current range of 4.25%–4.50%, unchanged since December 2024.
- Market chances for a rate cut are close to 0% in June and only 13% in July.
📊 3. Focus: Dot plot forecasts
- This meeting includes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or "dot plot," showing Fed officials' rate forecasts for 2025–2026.
- Key expectations:
- Fewer rate cuts in 2025: Likely reduced from two cuts (projected in March) to one cut by year-end.
- Higher inflation: Forecasts may rise to 3.0%–3.3% (from 2.8%) due to tariff impacts.
- Slower growth: GDP forecasts may be revised down to 1.3% (from 1.7%).
🏛️ 4. Political pressure & uncertainty
- President Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Powell, demanding a "full one percentage point cut" and calling him a "dummy" for resisting.
- New tariffs and fiscal policies complicate the Fed's forecast, creating an "uncomfortable purgatory" between inflation risks and growth concerns.
📈 5. Market impact
- Stocks: Transitioning to one cut in 2025 may trigger a ~1% sell-off in the S&P 500; maintaining two cuts could support the markets.
- Bonds: Futures traders are pricing in a 60% chance of a cut by September, with an 88% chance of at least two cuts by December.
🗓️ Upcoming FOMC meetings in 2025
Table: Key remaining meetings this year :
| Meeting Dates | Special Notes |
|-------------------------|--------------------------------------------|
| July 29–30 | Press conference not scheduled |
| September 16–17* | Includes dot plot & press conference |
| October 28–29 | No dot plot or press conference |
| December 9–10* | Includes dot plot & press conference |
💡 Key takeaway
Today's meeting lays the groundwork for future policy amid high uncertainty. While an immediate rate cut is not expected, changes in the dot plot and Powell's comments on tariffs, inflation, and political pressure will shape market sentiment. The next real window for Fed cuts is September or December.