#FOMCMeeting The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting, signaling continued caution amid economic uncertainty tied to tariffs and geopolitical risks.

Key Takeaways:

1. No Rate Cut (Yet):

- The decision was unanimous, with a 99.9% probability priced in by markets.

- Fed Chair Powell emphasized a "wait-and-see" approach, citing unclear impacts from Trump’s trade policies and Middle East tensions.

2. Economic Projections ("Dot Plot"):

- The Fed’s updated projections hinted at fewer rate cuts in 2025, possibly just one (down from two in March).

- Inflation ticked up to 2.4% in May, while growth and labor markets showed mixed signals.

3. Market & Political Context:

- President Trump’s public pressure for rate cuts clashed with the Fed’s data-dependent stance.

- Retail sales fell 0.9% in May, but underlying consumption remained resilient.

4. What’s Next?

- Next meetings: July 29-30 and September 16-17.

- Markets now eye September for the first potential cut (60% odds).

Bottom Line: The Fed is balancing stagflation risks (higher prices + slower growth) with political and global volatility. Hold tight for more clarity post-tariff effects!