Technical and Fundamental Analysis of BTC/USDT (June 17, 2025)
#BTC #Binance #Bitcoin❗ #BinanceSquareFamily
Key Technical Indicators (RSI, MACD, MAs, Volume)
RSI and MACD: Bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI) is near neutral levels on the daily chart (~50 points), reflecting market indecision after the recent consolidation. In shorter timeframes, the RSI dropped to ~42 on the 4-hour chart during the correction, signaling slight intraday overselling. The daily MACD, on the other hand, presents a bearish cross activated last week (around June 14), indicating downward momentum in the short term. However, this bearish momentum seems to be losing strength as the price attempts to bounce; in smaller timeframes, the MACD histogram is starting to reduce its negativity, suggesting a possible bullish convergence if the bounce consolidates. In summary, technical oscillators show a mixed outlook: still weak momentum but local oversold conditions that could foster a technical relief rally.
Moving Averages (MA 25/50/100): Price action is in a crucial zone regarding its short- and medium-term moving averages. Bitcoin remains above the 50-day moving average ($104,000), which acted as dynamic support during the recent decline. It also trades above the 100-day moving average ($95,800), preserving the larger bullish structure. The 25-day moving average (approximately one month) is estimated around the $107–108K zone, very close to the current price – indicating that the price has been consolidating around this short-term average. The fact that BTC/USDT remains above the 50 and 100-day MAs suggests that the macro trend remains intact, although a firm break below the MA50 ($104K) would be a sign of technical deterioration to watch. Conversely, recovering above the MA25 and holding there would reinforce the idea that the correction may have ended.
Volume: Trading volume has shown ups and downs in recent days. During the consolidation phase of the last week, volume decreased on major exchanges – a sign of indecision and lower participation as the price oscillated in a narrow range. However, in specific moments of volatility, there were spikes in volume: for example, during significant liquidations, a ~15% increase in daily volume was observed, indicating rapid inflows and outflows when the price exits the range. Overall, the absence of extraordinary volumes suggests a lack of strong conviction in one direction (neither massive capitulation nor unleashed euphoria), awaiting catalysts. It is likely that a clear breakout above resistance or below key support will be accompanied by a notable increase in volume confirming the direction of the next movement.
Candle Reading in 1H, 4H and 1D (Relevant Patterns)
1H Chart (intraday): In 1-hour candles, Bitcoin recently showed a significant technical bounce from the ~$102,500 zone (weekend low). That double touch in the $102K-$104K area formed a possible intraday double bottom that served as a pivot for the recovery. Following the rebound, the 1H candles evidenced a breakout from the short-term bearish trendline on June 16, carrying the price up to ~$108,000 (high since June 12) before encountering resistance. Currently, the candle pattern in this framework suggests consolidation in a narrow range – that is, a possible formation of a symmetrical triangle or pennant – as the market awaits the next breakout. The upper wicks around $108K reflect selling as it approaches that resistance, while the lower wicks in the $105K-$104K area show buying defending immediate support. This range compression typically precedes a sharp movement; intraday traders should watch for breakouts above $108K or below $104K to anticipate the direction of the next significant swing.
4H Chart (short-medium term): In 4 hours, the transition from the recent corrective phase to a possible bullish turnaround is clearer. The 4H candles managed to stop a sequence of lower highs, printing a bullish “character change” after defending the $104K support. That is, the price made a higher low and began to mark slightly ascending highs in this framework, indicating a breakout from the previous bearish pattern. A set of equal highs was even identified ($106,000–$106,700) that, when surpassed, bolstered the recovery. However, a significant liquidity and supply zone persists at $108K–$110K where the last 4H candles have shown rejection wicks. In summary, the 4H reveals a market coming out of oversold (4H RSI rising from ~42) and with improving momentum, but still dealing with sellers at the first key resistance zone. A 4-hour close above ~$108.5K with good volume could trigger a bullish acceleration (confirming breakout of the range), while a loss of the $104K level would invalidate the turnaround structure and reactivate short-term bearish pressures.
1D Chart (daily): In the daily frame, Bitcoin has experienced short-range candles with small bodies in recent days, reflecting indecision and consolidation. After the abrupt drop on June 10-11 (when the price fell from ~$110K to ~$105K, filling a pending value gap), the subsequent candles have mostly been dojis or of reduced body, indicating a temporary balance between supply and demand. The session on June 16 was bullish (BTC rose +1.1% recovering $106K), but the one on June 17 showed an upper wick as it approached ~$108K again, denoting that this zone still acts as immediate ceiling. Technically, a bullish “cup and handle” pattern is being outlined on the daily, where the “cup” was the rally towards the all-time high and the “handle” is the current sideways-bearish consolidation. As long as the price remains above the key support of $100K-$104K, this pattern remains valid and could activate with a decisive breakout above $110K. Additionally, at the weekly level, it is worth noting that the last two candles have been indecisive (doji type), reflecting the market's caution at this critical point. A daily candle with a net close above $108K-$110K would be a strong signal for a bullish continuation towards new highs, while a large red candle breaking below $100K would invalidate the bullish pattern and suggest a deeper correction.
Macroeconomic News and Key Events
Monetary Policy (FOMC and rates): This week the market's attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's meeting (FOMC) on June 17-18. While the probability of immediate changes in the interest rate is practically nil (≈99.9% chance of keeping rates unchanged, according to CME FedWatch), investors are closely following the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday the 18th. Any dovish nuance in his tone (e.g., hinting at future rate cuts) could be “extra fuel for the bulls” and push BTC higher. It is worth mentioning that U.S. President Donald Trump has been publicly pressuring the Fed to lower rates, although for now the Fed is expected to remain firm given inflation still above target. In summary, the outcome of the FOMC and, above all, signals about monetary policy for the second half of the year, could generate volatility across all markets (including Bitcoin). A more aggressive or inflation-worried Powell could stoke risk aversion (negatively affecting BTC in the short term), while a more relaxed Powell regarding future hikes would relieve the crypto market.
Geopolitics (Middle East conflict): The geopolitical context adds uncertainty. In recent days, an armed conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, which began on June 13 and initially shook the markets. Bitcoin was not immune: it recorded a strong sell-off that day (down >6% intraday) amid rising tensions. However, the market has "absorbed" the shock quite well; BTC rebounded more than 6.5% from the June 13 low, demonstrating resilience even as the military situation continues. President Trump shortened his participation in the G7 summit to return to Washington and meet with his national security team, indicating the seriousness of the matter. So far, crypto investors seem to downplay the conflict, considering it localized (without immediate global systemic impact), as is often the case after the "first scare" of geopolitical events. Still, the risk persists: a greater escalation (for example, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that drives up oil prices, or direct U.S. involvement) could hit confidence in risk assets. For now, the market discounts that the confrontation will remain contained; any sign of de-escalation could act as a positive catalyst (as already seen: after the first few days, BTC and stocks rebounded together when fears of widespread regional war decreased).
Regulation and Adoption: On the regulatory and institutional front, there is encouraging news. In the U.S., spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to attract capital; there have now been seven consecutive weeks of positive flows into these vehicles, even amid uncertainty due to the conflict. In fact, BlackRock (the largest asset manager) led significant inflows (> $400 million) into its Bitcoin ETF during the recent volatility, interpreted as a sign of institutional confidence even under global stress. In Europe, the new MiCA framework is coming into effect, which, although it imposes strict rules, is seen as a step to legitimize and attract major players to the crypto space. Additionally, some countries continue to advance in adoption: for example, Vietnam has just approved a Digital Industry Law that officially recognizes crypto assets from 2026, joining the trend of greater global acceptance. All these developments suggest a positive fundamental backdrop: institutions are accumulating BTC (via ETFs and corporate treasuries) and regulators are gradually providing clarity. However, there are also warnings: the SEC in the U.S. maintains a scrutiny stance on certain crypto practices, and any high-profile legal action could impact sentiment. For now, the news balance seems to lean in favor of Bitcoin – with robust institutional demand and a clarifying regulatory environment – which helps explain why the price holds above psychological levels like $100K despite recent turbulence.
Whale and Institutional Movements: In line with the above, notable purchases by large participants stand out. MicroStrategy (renamed in reports simply as “Strategy”) increased its position this week, adding 10,100 BTC (~$1.05 billion investment at an average price of $104,080), bringing its holdings to 592,100 BTC – a sign that strong hands continue to "buy the dip." Similarly, the Japanese fund Metaplanet acquired an additional 1,112 BTC, reaching a total of 10,000 BTC in its possession. These corporate accumulations, along with inflows into mentioned ETFs, have provided a demand floor that supports Bitcoin's price. On the side of large traders, there were also instructive episodes: a trader nicknamed “AguilaTrades” suffered massive liquidations for over-leveraging ($400M in longs), which contributed to accelerating a correction towards $65,500 before recovering. This isolated case (where an excessive long ended up capitulating) served as a reminder of the fragility of over-leveraged markets, but fortunately did not trigger lasting contagion – in fact, the network absorbed that forced selling and subsequently remained relatively stable. Overall, whale activity shows mixed but interesting signals: some large holders move coins to exchanges for spot sales, while others accumulate in cold storage (net withdrawals from exchanges) seeing value in holding BTC for the medium term. This dynamic suggests that, unless very adverse news arises, there is a buyer interest floor willing to come into action on drops towards key areas (100K or lower).
General Sentiment of the Crypto Market and Exchange Flows
Market sentiment in the crypto community remains cautiously optimistic, though far from euphoria. Indicators like the Fear and Greed index have retreated from greed levels towards the moderate “neutral/fear” zone. This implies that, despite the rapid recovery post-correction, many investors are still somewhat cautious – a common “disbelief” attitude during consolidations after significant rises. In fact, analysts highlight that options metrics like Bitcoin's 25 Delta Skew have turned unusually bullish in the short term, signaling that traders are “aggressively positioning” for a possible upward movement or high volatility in the coming weeks. This apparent contradiction (tepid public sentiment, but professional traders taking call/volatility positions) suggests an expectation that “something” is about to happen – aligned with the technical consolidation we observed. Practically speaking, a generally non-overzealous sentiment combined with bullish tactical bets is often fertile ground for positive movements, as there is less risk of mass selling due to “excess optimism” and, at the same time, smart money anticipating a breakout.
Regarding flows to/from exchanges, recent on-chain data reflects stability and even a bullish bias. Since June 11, net inflows to exchanges have remained neutral or negative, meaning there is no evidence of investors rushing to deposit BTC for sale; on the contrary, slight withdrawals have predominated. CryptoQuant reports that these negative netflows imply that coins are moving to cold storage, typically a bullish sign (holders prefer to keep their BTC out of trading platforms). Likewise, no abnormal deposit spikes were detected even during the news of the war, indicating that there was no widespread selling panic in the ecosystem. In parallel, open positions in BTC futures have remained elevated (~$33.5 billion) without notable declines even after the recent volatility. This suggests that many traders have maintained their contracts and have not dismantled their longs en masse, demonstrating conviction in the underlying trend. CME data (institutional futures market) shows only modest reductions in nearby short contracts, with no signs of institutional flight – rather, a prudent adjustment of short-term hedges, keeping the bulk of long positions intact. In summary, both in spot and derivatives exchanges, calm is observed: there are no significant exits or massive liquidations, but a vigilant market. Even on-chain metrics like address activity indicate that large holders (whales) have increased their balance during this phase, while retail investors tend to wait or make small sales, suggesting ongoing strategic accumulation.
It is worth noting that, despite the relatively stable sentiment, some technical analysts warn against complacency: there is talk of the possibility that Bitcoin is approaching the end of its macro bullish cycle, possibly projecting a final rally towards $150-200K followed by a very deep correction. Although that is a longer horizon, they mention levels like $88,000 as a potential key eventual support in the event of a large market "cooling off." For now, this scenario is speculative and does not affect this week's outlook, but it serves as a reminder that sentiment can change if Bitcoin enters a phase of extreme exuberance. At the moment, there are no signs of that rampant euphoria; rather, cautious confidence prevails, supported by fundamentals (institutional capital inflows, adoption) but with awareness of risks (Fed, geopolitics). This balance of sentiment suggests that the market has room to surprise to the upside if news supports it, while a bearish turn would likely be contained by the lack of excessively optimistic positions (i.e., less risk of cascading long liquidations, given that net leverage is not at highs and funding has recently turned negative in favor of shorts).
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Daily BTC/USDT chart with moving averages and key levels. The $102K–$104K support zone is highlighted in green, coinciding with the daily MA50 (yellow line). In red, the $109K–$110.5K resistance zone corresponds to a recent supply block. The upper black line marks the all-time high ~$112K, whose breakout would activate new bullish targets. Below, the MA100 (purple line) at ~$95.8K and MA200 at ~$94.6K provide longer-term supports. The 14-day RSI (lower panel) is at ~50 (neutral) indicating balance.
The following table summarizes the critical support and resistance levels for BTC/USDT in the short term, along with their relevance:
Level (USD)
Type
Importance / Observations
112,000
Resistance (all-time high)
Last ATH (May 22). Surpassing this would convert the trend into price discovery; additionally, there is significant liquidity of sell orders and stop-losses for shorts just above, whose activation could trigger a short squeeze towards ~$114K.
108,000 – 110,500
Resistance (supply zone)
Recent supply range below the ATH. Includes ~108,064 (pending value gap/FVG) up to ~110.5K. Bitcoin faced selling in this area after the bounce; it is necessary to close above to resume the rally. A daily close >$110K would reinforce the short-term bullish structure.
106,000
Minor resistance / pivot
Level that bears are currently trying to defend. It coincides with a midpoint of the consolidated range. BTC has struggled to stay above $106K, so a clear break of this intraday pivot would pave the way to test the upper zone ($108K+). Conversely, while it remains below, the probability of a pullback increases.
104,000 – 102,800
Key immediate support
Important technical support zone. ~$104K corresponds to the 50-day MA (dynamic support), and ~$102.8K was the minimum of the range from June 13. This green band has halted recent declines. A convincing loss of $102.8K in daily close would be a bearish signal, exposing lower levels.
100,000
Psychological support
Round number of great psychological weight and level protected by buyers (buy orders are accumulating around 100K). It has acted as a floor during the initial geopolitical crisis. A break below six figures could trigger additional panic selling, but as long as it holds, it preserves the structure of higher highs and lows on larger timeframes.
95,800 – 94,600
Technical support (100d MA / 200d MA)
Zone where the 100 MA (~95.8K) and 200 MA (~94.6K) daily converge. Represents medium-term trend support; even in a deeper correction scenario, strong defense by long-term bulls is expected here. Also close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the annual rise (~97K) mentioned in previous analyses.
92,000 – 93,000
Major support (demand cluster)
Area identified with high pending buy orders according to the liquidity heatmap. Additionally, Elliott Wave analysts point to it as a possible target for the end of correction (Wave C) in a very bearish scenario. It would be the last bastion of support before deepening to lower levels (88K, 80K, etc.), so it is unlikely to be pierced without a serious macro catalyst.
Note: additional intermediate levels to monitor include $108,000 (already mentioned intraday pivot), $111,000 (approx. maximum from June 12, precursor to ATH) and $88,000 (macro support mentioned by some analysts as critical in potential major corrections). However, for the perspective of the next hours and days, the ranges in the table above are the most relevant.
Likely Scenarios in the Short Term (Intraday and until June 21)
Given the confluence of technical and fundamental factors analyzed, it is prudent to consider alternative scenarios for BTC/USDT in the short term, along with their implications. Below, we describe the bullish, bearish, and sideways outlooks that could develop between today and the weekend, along with the levels to watch in each case:
Bullish Scenario (Upside Break): Bitcoin manages to clearly break the immediate resistance of $108K and confirms a close above $110K in the coming sessions. This movement would likely be catalyzed by favorable news (e.g., dovish message from the Fed, or easing of the geopolitical conflict), accompanied by a notable increase in volume. In this scenario, impulse buys and short liquidations (short squeeze) would activate upon crossing the ATH ~$112K, which could quickly drive the price towards targets like $114K–$115K and even $120K if the momentum holds. Technical indicators would support this path: the RSI would move from neutrality to moderate overbought (showing strength), and the daily MACD could record a bullish turn (histogram turning positive). Under this scenario, the optimal strategy would be to hold or add to positions in BTC, as the trend would resume upward; converting to USDT would mean missing out on the continuation of the rally, and grid bots would struggle to follow a sustained vertical breakout. However, after a quick rise to new heights, one should watch for a possible saturation (blow-off) near $115K-$120K where profit-taking could occur.
Bearish Scenario (Additional Correction): Bitcoin is rejected again in the $108K-$110K zone and loses critical support of $104K in a decidedly bearish move. This could be triggered by a negative shock – for example, a greater escalation in the war (involving the U.S. or oil spike) or a hawkish surprise from the Fed that strengthens the dollar and weakens risk assets. Technically, a daily close below $103K (below the EMA50) would be a confirmation signal for this scenario. In such a case, BTC would likely accelerate the decline towards the psychological level of $100K, where the strength of buyers would be measured. If 100K fails to hold, the next supports to test would be ~$97K (relevant fibo retracement) and the $95K-$94K zone corresponding to the 100 and 200-day MAs. A quick wick towards $92K-$93K (where a large cluster of buy orders resides) before recovering is not ruled out. In this bearish scenario, indicators would deepen into weakness: daily RSI possibly falling towards ~40 or lower, and MACD widening its negative cross. Strategy: it may be prudent to partially convert BTC to USDT to protect capital if support breaks are confirmed (especially below 100K), with the idea of buying back lower once stabilized. Alternatively, an aggressive trader could open shorts on the loss of $104K targeting the mentioned lower zone (although with tight stops given the rebound risk at 100K). Grid bots in a clearly bearish environment risk accumulating losing positions, so they would not be advisable unless adjusted to a new lower range. Only after seeing signs of a floor (e.g., capitulation candle with high volume at 95K-100K) would re-entering the spot market be considered with the portion sheltered in USDT.
Sideways/Neutral Scenario (Prolonged Consolidation): Bitcoin could also continue to oscillate aimlessly between recent limits – approximately support $100K-$104K and resistance $108K-$110K – over the next few days. In this case, the breakout catalyst (whether FOMC or another event) does not trigger an immediate directional movement, and the market digests the information without leaving the range. This scenario would see the RSI moving around 50 constantly and the MACD flat, reflecting a lack of trend. Volatility bands would narrow even further until a breakout eventually occurs (possibly next week if not sooner). In such a sideways range, short-term trading strategies could work: for example, trading rebounds between support and resistance (buying near 102-104K, selling near 108-110K) while consolidation lasts. Implementing grid bots would be appropriate here, setting staggered buy-sell orders within the range limits to capture small profits from each swing. It is crucial, however, to closely monitor any breakout of the range, as when this sideways scenario ends, it will transform into one of the two previous ones (bullish or bearish). Therefore, any grid bot should be used with conservative parameters and a general stop, to close if the price exits the expected interval. Holding BTC vs USDT in this scenario depends on risk appetite: intraday volatility would be low, so holding BTC is relatively comfortable as long as one is willing to tolerate ±5% movements without clear direction; there would be no urgency to shelter in USDT until definition is seen.
Conclusion and Guiding Recommendation
Considering all the analysis, we find ourselves at a turning point for BTC/USDT. Short-term technical signals suggest that the correction may be exhausting (RSI coming out of oversold and $100K support respected), but confirmation is still needed with resistance breaks to declare the bullish trend resumed. In parallel, the fundamentals show a solid backdrop – continuous institutional investment, few signs of panic, and possible monetary relief on the horizon – although there are also latent risks that cannot be ignored (war conflict, potential surprises from the Fed or regulations).
To decide the strategy: if you lean towards the bullish scenario (the most plausible if macro variables do not worsen), the recommendation would be to hold your BTC and even consider adding on moderate dips, as the projection points to recovery and possible new highs towards the weekend or coming weeks. In this case, converting to USDT prematurely could cause you to miss a significant portion of revaluation, and a grid bot could lag behind a strong upward breakout. On the other hand, if you are concerned about a bearish scenario due to uncertainty (for example, you want to hedge against the Fed meeting or fear a military escalation), you could secure profits by converting part of your position to USDT now and placing buy-back orders lower (e.g., around ~$100K or ~$95K, upcoming supports) to take advantage of a dip, or simply maintain that stable reserve until the outlook clarifies. Finally, if you observe that the price continues to lateralize in a narrow range, activating a grid bot with well-defined ranges (gradual purchases near ~$102K support and sales near ~$110K, for example) can generate constant profits by taking advantage of micro-volatility, while keeping part of your portfolio in BTC awaiting the next big movement.
In any case, it is important to maintain discipline in risk management. Define invalidation levels for each scenario: for example, if you hold BTC with a bullish bias, have a mental stop-loss in case of a loss of $100K (to avoid a greater drop); if you operate a grid, be ready to stop it if it exits the range; if you opt for USDT expecting a drop, also set a re-entry point so you don't miss out if the market takes off without you. The current situation of Bitcoin is one of “calm before the storm” – the consolidation suggests that an important movement is approaching – so the next hours and days will be decisive. Stay tuned for FOMC news on Wednesday and any geopolitical headlines, as they could be the catalyst. With the information available, Bitcoin shows resilience and a bullish bias as long as it does not lose key supports, so a patient posture (holding) with precautions seems justified. At the same time, having a flexible plan (e.g., some stablecoins as insurance, or automated trading tools in range) can help capitalize on any of the likely scenarios without incurring undue risks. In summary, the recommendation is to evaluate your risk tolerance and position accordingly, knowing that the odds favor a prompt bullish resolution of this consolidation, but prepared to react if the market decides otherwise.
Sources: Technical analysis from FXStreet, Cointelegraph, CoinEdition, and DailyForex; on-chain and institutional data from CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and market reports; macro news from financial media (Bloomberg, Reuters) compiled in FingerLakes1 and TradingView. All references used support the information presented and are cited throughout the document for detailed consultation. Good luck with your trading decisions! 🟢📊💡