The Two Major Themes of the Cryptocurrency Market in the Second Half of 2025: Interest Rate Cuts and Certainty Opportunities Under Systemic Restructuring

As we approach the end of June, the situation in the cryptocurrency market for 2025 has become quite clear!

There are two main trading logics running through this year's cryptocurrency market:

1. One obvious line is the battle between U.S. President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell over whether to cut interest rates this year.

Although most macro analysts refuse to introduce a political dimension into the analysis of the interest rate cut debate between Trump and Powell, those who understand know better. Whether or not to cut rates is not directly related to U.S. inflation data and non-farm employment; it is actually a major leverage in the political game between the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S.

Observing the current FedWatch interest rate cut expectations, Polymarket prediction markets, and Twitter public sentiment, it can be seen that Powell currently has a firm grip on the discourse power of the financial market, while Trump can only rely on various tariff wars and social media to exert pressure and create some influence in the financial markets.

Thus, in the future equilibrium points of the two major games - Powell's departure in May 2026 and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, the entire market will be in a state of uncertainty brought about by Powell tightening market liquidity and Trump stirring up trouble everywhere.

2. A subtle line is the integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system, participating in the restructuring of the dollar financial system.

Whether it is increasing U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserves under the principle of fiscal neutrality or the U.S. version of the debt conversion plan aiming to scale stablecoins to over $2 trillion in the next few years, including upcoming market structure legislation clarifying whether the regulatory body for the cryptocurrency market is the SEC or the CFTC, and whether PerpDEX represented by Hyperliquid can operate in the U.S., Trump's regulatory actions and Vance's public speeches are all indicating that the Trump administration views cryptocurrencies as an organic part of restructuring the dollar financial system in the 21st century.

Therefore, 2025 is destined to be a year of uncertainty. For retail investors like us, investing and trading this year is like a small boat sailing into stormy seas amid strong winds and rain. Making money from investments and trading this year is an epic challenge.

However, 2025 is not a year to lie flat; finding certainty amid uncertainty is the path of the wise.