In the early morning of June 13, the sound of explosions in Tehran, the capital of Iran, has not yet stopped, and the cryptocurrency market is already in a bloodbath, with Bitcoin plummeting 1.5% in 15 minutes, mainstream altcoins like Ethereum and Solana crashing collectively, with declines of up to 12%.

This market bloodbath triggered by war has led to 200,000 liquidations within 24 hours, evaporating $1.154 billion, with the largest single liquidation reaching $201 million. The market feels like a cat whose tail has been stepped on, but strangely, after the plunge, the 'fear and greed index' remains steady in the greed zone at 60. Analyst Za complained, 'Bitcoin doesn't care about the Middle East conflict at all!' Behind this is the cryptocurrency market's 'resilience upgrade' to geopolitical conflicts; after all, when Iran retaliated against Israel in April 2024, Bitcoin dropped 10% in a single day, but this time the drop was limited to 2.3%, managing to withstand the initial wave of panic.

While the Middle East is engulfed in war, Trump has played a 'double-faced card', igniting tensions in the Middle East while frantically harvesting in the cryptocurrency market. As missiles fly in the sky, Trump's crypto wallet is also raking in profits, with his personal crypto assets soaring to $3.3 billion, accounting for 60% of his total wealth. His own company, World Liberty Financial, alone made $57.35 million. The Trump initiative promoted by his sons surged 15,000% in 12 hours. It must be said that Trump really knows how to play; he is aggressively pushing 'American coin rights' in policy, setting national Bitcoin reserves, replacing the SEC chairman, and even thinking about confiscating the seized Bitcoin. With one hand fanning the flames in the Middle East and the other hand reaping profits in the crypto market, policy and business are perfectly intertwined.

The Democrats criticize him for 'using the presidency to exploit the people', but the cryptocurrency market has to watch his expression. If he makes harsh statements against Iran, the market trembles immediately; if he hints at a rate cut, Bitcoin bounces back.

Now the changes in the Middle East have buried three landmines,
The cryptocurrency market's rise or fall all depends on them,
First is the risk of an escalation in the conflict, with Iran declaring 'endless retaliation',
US troops are evacuating, and Israel is under nationwide curfew; if US military bases are truly attacked,
Bitcoin could plummet to around $90,000, but if the US and Iran reach a temporary peace,
a price rebound to $108,000 is also a reasonable expectation.
Then there is Trump's 'cryptocurrency hegemony',
replicating the dollar hegemony model in the cryptocurrency market,
forcing countries to build crypto reserves and imposing taxes on those that do not comply,
short-term boosting Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold',
but in the long term, setting landmines, as policy changes faster than flipping a page,
A single statement about tariffs in February 2025 could lead to Bitcoin crashing by 10%.
Finally, there is the Federal Reserve's 'one-two punch',
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 19 and Powell's press conference are the main events.
If rate cut expectations rise, combined with a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East,
Bitcoin may take the opportunity to rebound; if hawkish, combined with wartime chaos,
$100,000 support level may be breached (with liquidation risk reaching $1.74 billion).
Bitcoin's outlook is bright, but Ethereum may have a trend of lagging behind, new public chains are starting to steal the spotlight, and the altcoin market is about to change. Bitcoin's 'safe-haven' persona is stable, accounting for 59.1% of the total crypto market cap, institutional ETF funds continue to flow in, Grayscale is bullish at $150,000, but Ethereum is indeed pulling back, with its share dropping to 7.9%, the lowest in 19 years.#美联储FOMC会议 #Solana现货ETF竞赛 #币安HODLer空投SPK #币安Alpha上新 #Metaplanet增持比特币