Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will hold one of the key meetings of the year. Investors are closely preparing for the publication of the decision #fomc — macroeconomic signals directly affect the movement of Bitcoin and altcoins in the short term.

Publication schedule for June 18

Tomorrow, the Fed will publish full data on the meeting's outcomes:

  • 2:00 PM ET — interest rate decision.

  • 2:00 PM ET — text of the official FOMC statement.

  • 2:00 PM ET — updated forecast on rates.

  • 2:30 PM ET — Jerome Powell's press conference.

The market does not expect changes in the rate

Almost the entire market is pricing in a scenario where the current rate remains unchanged. The probability of it being held in the range of 4.25%–4.50% is estimated at 97.5%.

Inflation remains above target levels, and geopolitical instability is putting pressure on the global economy — under these conditions, the Fed is unlikely to rush into rate cuts in June.

Expectations are shifting towards autumn

The key focus of investors will be on the tone of Powell's statements and the new forecasts from the regulator. The market currently assesses the chances of the first rate cut in September at around 60%.

However, in its new forecasts (dot plot), the Fed may reduce the number of expected cuts by the end of the year — considering the ongoing macroeconomic risks.

What does this mean for Bitcoin

The rate decision itself will not be a surprise for the crypto market. However, the rhetoric of the Fed chair will be the most important driver. If Powell allows for possible easing of policy or hints at the return of quantitative easing (QE), it could trigger a broad wave of growth.

Today, Bitcoin $BTC has two potential reasons for growth:

  • De-escalation of geopolitical tensions.

  • A soft tone from the Fed regarding future rates.

An additional factor is the accumulated skew in crypto positions. Funding for futures remains in negative territory, creating a basis for a potential short squeeze when sentiment changes.

What's next?

The main market attention is on the evening of June 18. After the publication of decisions #FOMC‬⁩ and Powell's press conference, increased volatility can be expected in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.