Oil prices have risen again. The deepening conflict between Israel and Iran raises traders' concerns about supply disruptions from the Gulf region.
On Tuesday, Brent futures rose by 0.5% to $73.57 per barrel. American WTI gained 0.4%, settling at $72.06. Earlier in the session, price increases exceeded 2%.
Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran
The main driver of growth has once again been political statements. Donald Trump blamed Iran for the collapse of nuclear deal negotiations and issued a direct warning:
"Everyone should evacuate Tehran," he wrote on Truth Social, directly linking it to Iran's abandonment of the nuclear program agreement.
The G7 expressed support for Israel and the necessity of restraint
At the same time, at the G7 summit in Canada, the leaders of the largest countries called for de-escalation of the conflict, but emphasized:
Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons.
Israel has every right to self-defense.
The source of regional instability remains Tehran's own policies.
Previously, French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that the US initiate a ceasefire plan, but Trump categorically rejected this in a response post:
"This is not true! The issue is much broader than just a ceasefire."
Fifth night of war: new strikes and anxiety in Tel Aviv
On Tuesday, the conflict entered the fifth phase of active escalation. Iranian media report new explosions and air defense activity in the Tehran area. Air raid sirens sounded again in Israel — this time in Tel Aviv after a series of Iranian missile launches.
The oil market is balancing between geopolitics and the Fed
Analysts note that the current volatility is intensified not only by the conflict but also by expectations of the Fed's decision on rates.
Priyanka Sachdeva from Phillip Nova commented to Reuters:
"The risks of war are directly pressuring investor sentiment. The market's additional instability is fueled by expectations of the FOMC meeting results, which intensifies price reactions in oil."
Risks for oil production are increasing
Iran remains the third largest producer among OPEC members. Any disruptions in its exports could lead to a global increase in oil prices. The organization has already warned that a large-scale supply failure in the region will have a systemic impact on the global market.
Additional risks are also heightened against the backdrop of incidents in the Gulf region. On Monday, there were reports of a new shipping incident in the Oman area, raising traders' concerns about the safety of transporting oil and fuel through the Strait of Hormuz.
What’s next?
The situation remains extremely unstable. Further rhetoric from Trump, the development of negotiations, and the dynamics of the conflict will be key factors for oil and more broadly — for global markets.
An additional element is the publication of the Fed's decision already on Wednesday. The outcomes of the meeting could amplify or offset some geopolitical price fluctuations in commodity markets.
